Weekly Review Li Stocks - 16th Feb 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis. I also have performances of Li stocks for 2023 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week I have not added any new stocks to list, so my list still contains 96 stocks.
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.How are we going in 2024 - General Markets
- SP 500 made a new All Time high this week at 5048, finishing the week with loss of under half percent for the week. This was first weekly loss after 5 straight weekly gains
- Volatility Index VIX is just over 14 - still very bullish
- Bitcoin on a rampage, over 51k now, usually stocks follow, both are in ascendancy but percentage gain in bitcoin higher, stocks may catchup
- Sentiment Indicator - at Extreme Greed 77 - after hovering on Greed for sometime even when Indices were rising, now its in parity and the divergence is no longer there. Previous patterns, usually stock market tops for a correction/pullback at early 80s on Sentiment Indicator, something to watch
- Russell 2000 still not doing great, though rose for the week, on Friday fell around 1.4%, so we want this to do well for resource, risk-on assets
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li:
- Indices are still doing great, though there was a bit of worry on more than expected Inflation rise. So Yields are rising, Dollar Index is rising - for sustained increased in Indices one would think they would pull back, they have not yet, so a bit of divergence is there
- Key economic data this week around - nothing major - jobs etc, one to watch FOMC minutes for Interest Rate cut clues
- Uranium Sector overview - Uranium Spot price is in consolidation mode after making 106 high, now at 103. U stocks also in consolidation phase. For simplicity I use CCJ. I was expecting CCJ to drop 20 to 25% before next leg. So somewhere between 39 to 41 - it has done 41.21, close to 20% drop, so in ball park, lets see how long this phase goes. We had one big rise in September, another big rise early January, so March/April for next one - don't know. But sentiment is still bullish, anytime it can take off, so best to follow price action
- Lithium Sector overview - First signs that we may have seen the bottom of the big down trend for over a year. Feb 6th, many stocks bottomed, some before some after, many have risen close to 50% indicating we may be playing a different phase now. But that's ASX Li stocks. US Li stocks are still around 10 to 15% from their bottom. So a bit of divergence between ASX and US Li stocks. Which means, either ASX Li will pull back, or US Li will move up - but unless US Li moves up, my feel is any rise in ASX Li may be short lived. Lets see.
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Personally:
My current situation this week - 10% U, 40% Li, 10% Others, 40% cash. Have bumped up Li holdings this week.
U stocks I had two good gains in September and January. Now I am playing with soft hands, holding 1 big and few moderate
Li stocks I am playing two decent and others with moderate holding. After a long time increased my holding in Li stocks this week as many met the criteria I was waiting for to buy - mainly stocks to return to my previous buy. My previous play was to exit completely on weakness and buy back. After stocks had fallen a lot, I decide not to sell anymore. But I was also not buying the dip. My plan was to wait for stocks to return to my previous buy and then buy. Many came back to my buy this week, hence bought. May not be best financial play, but was managing risk as Li stocks were in downward spiral - so suits me, may not be good for everyone.
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Also playing with some REE and Health stocks
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Stock/Sector specific Info:- Big move this week from 3.9 to 5.5 - a gain of over 40%
- Key numbers to watch and play would be 5.1 on the downside and 7.5 on the upside
- Li sector gained 2% for the week across 96 stocks. Last week also 2% gain - so overall moving in right direction, though many stocks have not embraced the rally completely
- US Li had another gain this week - 5% - ALB, SQM doing well. But most Li stocks are only around 10 to 15% from bottom, so fair way to go. ALB fiest key level to get over 127, then get towards 150. Downside to hold this level of 108/112
- On Friday, US Li stocks had a decent green so the big move by some ASX Li stocks may continue, though if its a big move then profit taking may come into play to moderate it
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks:
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(20min delay)