Weekly Review Li Stocks - 23rd Feb 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis. I also have performances of Li stocks for 2023 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week I have not added any new stocks to list, so my list still contains 96 stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Markets
- SP 500 made a new All Time high this week at 5111, highest close ever at 5088 on Friday, finishing the week with around 1.6 percent gain for the week. So after first weekly loss last week after 5 weeks of gains, SP 500 is back on gain path, led by tech stocks
- Volatility Index VIX is just under 14 - still very bullish, last week was just over 14
- Bitcoin after its rampage in recent times, looks like it wants to keep the gains, still over 51k now, consolidating. As was expected, stock market is following that and making gains too
- Sentiment Indicator - at Extreme Greed 78 - last week was 77, so has kept the level, and also indicative of stock market rise. Previous patterns, usually stock market tops for a correction/pullback at early 80s on Sentiment Indicator, something to watch
- Russell 2000 still not doing great, more important indicator for risk-on/resource stocks, it actually fell close to 1.5% for the weeks, so going in opposite direction, no wonder lot of resource stocks still struggling
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li:
- Indices are still doing great, Yields and Dollar Index still high - hopefully we see some down movement there
- Russell 2000 is key for us, signs at this stage are not great, so maybe another week for hope. If commodities have to do well, Russell 2000 has to do much better
- Key economic data this week around - mainly PCE, other usual hobs, housing etc which will not make much impact
- Uranium Sector overview - Uranium Spot price is in consolidation mode after making 106 high, now at 102, though in some platforms at 95. U stocks also in consolidation phase. I wrote last week that I expect CCJ between 39 to 41 - it has done 40.03. If 39 does not hold, a play of 35 may come into play, last phase bottom. On 19th January weekly report I had written I had sold most of my Uranium stocks. I was lucky as that marked the peak of this phase. Mr Greg, AGE boss, also sold some at 8c that week. I remember last time he had sold, he had again picked near top, so a clever man who understands market. So those who don't want to take a cue from my selling, Mr Greg is the man. This week U stocks fell 8% average. US U fell on Friday, so a soft start to the week.
- Lithium Sector overview - Very volatile, there is a good chance the stocks may have made their bottom on (and around) Feb 6th, but certainly not out of the wood. ALB who I use as indicator at 120, low is 108, so not far away. It needs to at least get 127, but that's Step 1 only. After it gets to high 140s that should give comfort to most. This week average loss was around 1%, but many mid to large stocks lost close to 10%. US Li gained on Friday, so neutral to positive start on Monday
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Personally:
My current situation this week - 5% U, 40% Li, 15% Others, 35% cash. Have bumped up Li and Others holdings this week, dropped U.
U stocks I had two good gains in September and January. Now I am hold 1 big, few others small, mostly trading - otherwise in a wait state, looking for cue for next leg. At this stage it looks it wants to go lower before going higher. How low, is to be seen. My lowest holding in U stocks in awhile. Early Jan, at one time nearly 60% of my portfolio was U stocks. Last few years I have seen this ups and downs, hence try to play it that way, sometimes I get it right, not always, this time luckily also got it right.
Li stocks I had mentioned I was playing two in big way. I got out of one on Friday - I was playing it for close to 6 weeks in this phase and writing daily. I was lucky there, my average buy was 40, got out at 60 and fairly large holding. Its a very strong Li stock, and I wrote on that thread yesterday, its so ironic, that I was buying when it was weakest and sold when its looking strongest. I have put the reasons there. I like the stock, previous run I got from high 30s and got out at 90. So I should be back there at some stage. It has been very lucky for me. Others still 1 large, 1 getting large and few moderate - picked up a few more recently
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Also playing with some REE and Health stocks. Many REE stocks are doing same hype play what Lithium was last year. Lot of stocks buying land in Canada, jumping few 100% on hype. I call them Stage 1 - hype. Next comes, Stage 2 - Reality. Its best to get out before Stage 2 from a risk perspective although anything can happen. I certainly get out, closer it comes to reality or price action becomes bad. Hence a bit up on Others holding for me.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:- Topsy turvy week which ultimately finished towards the lows - from 5.5 to 4.2 - just over 20% drop. Last week had gained 40% - all wiped out
- Key numbers to watch and play would be 3.7 on the downside and 5.1 on the upside - in between lot of play may happen
- SYA is now in uncertain phase due to recent events. Its been in this price range before, so nothing new, but recent events and trading pattern has made it very volatile - for last 8 trading days volume over 200m shares traded - only when it comes to 100 or below, one would think it is stabilised. Any news can increase the volatility - so a stock to play with caution now.
- I now have a moderate to high holding here, my current average 5.1, so down for now. My only solace is that in the run up, as had written that time, I had sold out at 6.9 from my holding at 4.6, but it was not a very big holding. I am hoping for some turn around in Li stocks in next few weeks/months, and hoping that the downside is not much, but anything can happen, so please dyor
- Li sector lost 1% for the week across 96 stocks, but many relevant stocks lost average 10% for the week
- US Li had a decent loss this week - 7% - there was some gain last week, wiped out for now. But most Li stocks are only around 10 to 15% from bottom, so fair way to go. ALB first key level to get over 127, then get towards 150. Downside to hold this level of 108/112
- On Friday, US Li stocks was in small green, but nothing emphatic, not sure how ASX Li will respond, but hoping at least neutral. But sentiment is weak, so anything can happen. Few days back, sentiment was improving, but now I feel its again reached the anxious level, rather than positive, so a big week ahead, lets see where we land
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks:
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(20min delay)