Weekly Review Li Stocks - 30th Sep 2022
Please note: This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
.Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view. .
NO DIARY THIS WEEK: This week there is no diary. Markets are very volatile and I am changing my position on a daily basis. I will return to diary once I start buying again - hopefully soon. . PERSONALLY - Last week I mentioned that I was 70% cash. By end of this week I am 30% cash. I was hoping for a bounce from June bottom levels. Although chances are still there that we may rebound from these levels, after Friday's action, the probability of that has now reduced. In my posts last few days, I had written the real low from where we could rebound was 3570/3780 - On Friday we reached around 3784. So its not looking good, we are bottom range. So probability for a bounce from this level is less than 20% for me. Depending on what happens in next day or so, I will decide what to do
.There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 25 stocks. This week there are 2 addition to the list - . 1) Tracking rise from June Bottom . In line with the videos I have been adding previously. One video from Chris which I have been putting for last couple of months. He sounds quite bearish now. Second video I regularly watch - the analyst feels we are at a temporary bottom now and may have a rebounce from Monday. There are still lot of analysts who are feeling defensive and think we may go down before we go up. BIGGEST POSITIVE OF this Downtrend: Although the indices have gone below June bottom, U stocks are still up 62% from June bottom - so we did not capitulate like June. If we rise as we did in June and make similar gains, we will reach much higher gains as we start from a much higher level now compared to June. This also demonstrates that our sector is slightly decoupled from general market - very good signs even if general market is in further turmoil.
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Like last week, my general statement remains- "Market continues to sit at pivotal zone, with a bearish outlook" - - :
Previously I have said that there are 2 key data that I am looking - SP 500 value 3900 and VIX 20 - They are so far out now, no longer applicable for short-term, but if the bull case is to return sometime, very much applicable For a rebounce, I was looking to rebound from these levels - on SP 500, early 3600s or late 3500s. We are at wrong end of it. Although chances of rebounce has decreased considerably, there is still a chance Even if we rebounce from here, we could move forward for couple of weeks, then have another fall, may be slightly bigger, then have our final rally going into Elections, Christmas and early part of next year. Other scenario is that we have a waterfall type of drop from here - and drop another 10% on SP 500. This will take us to somewhere around 3200s - a figure that has been talked about by bears since March. Its looking more probable now - question is whether we go there now or have a bounce and then go there. A Scenario that we don't go to 3200s level has a low probability now. . .
Positives for this week: The macro for Li is strongest it have ever been - market seems to be recognising it.Last 4 weeks - +13%, +2% , -6% and now -4% - still ahead for last 1 month We are 62% up from June bottom - a very great move For the year we are up by 35% across 54 stocks US Li and ASX Li slightly out of sync this week - We lost 4%, they were flat and did not lose anything - good signs Although indices dropped a lot, Li stocks had only a moderate fall .Negatives for this week: Friday US stocks fell, so would be same as us. Though they fell less than 1% - so did not fall down as much as general market We were not immune to general market downtrend, even if Li sector is going so strongly Short term market is looking bearish . Overall feel for next week: General feel is bearish There is a chance of a technical bounce, but if that is to happen, it could happen early in the week Friday US Li stocks had a drop of around 1% - so Monday could be a negative day No strong sector specific catalyst, so general market will drive the market .Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks: .
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Rise from June Bottom:Couple of Videos: Chris Video - he is turned bearish and also thinking a waterfall type of drop may happen VIDEO .Another video - someone who thinks we bounce early next week . VIDEO 
(20min delay)