Weekly Review Li Stocks - 22nd Mar 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis. I also have performances of Li stocks for 2023 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week I have not added any new stocks to list, so my list still contains 96 stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Markets
- SP 500 another new All Time High this Week of 5261, closing closing towards the high at 5234. Also, unlike Fridays, it dipped this week. Weekly, over 2% gain. So no stopping the indices on the back of mighty tech stocks.
- Volatility Index VIX is just over 13 - very bullish, so a small trip 15 now seems to be bedded and bulls in total control
- Bitcoin doing wild swings now. After 73k dipped 15%, trying to recover, at 64k now, so below last week level, after seems a long time a weekly loss
- Sentiment Indicator - at Greed 72 - many would think with indices doing great we would be at least Extreme Greed, but some punters still a bit shy
- Russell 2000 overall not doing great, more important indicator for risk-on/resource stocks. This week though it gained around 1.5%, still less than other indices, and on Friday was again panicking, drop of 1.3% - so still not giving strong bullish signs
- Yields still very high and not coming town to a good level
- Dollar Index too at a higher level
- Mr Powell for once was dovish this week on his update and signalling some rate cuts this year, markets lapped up to it
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li:
- Indices no stopping it looks. Many were thinking of some pullback, but Mr Powell dovish comments has kept it going. It will pullback at some stage, but better to follow price action rather than predicting. When going down, it was in same trajectory and many got it wrong
- Russell 2000 is key for us, we want that to go up - hopefully when indices pullback, there is some rotation from big tech stocks to some risk stocks
- Key economic data this week around - PCE mainly, but usual weekly data
- Uranium Sector overview - Uranium Spot first signs this week that we may have seen a bottom. No confirmation though yet. I have been writing CCJ needs to hold 139, it reached there 4 times coming back from 50s, this week it didn't reach 39, and came back from 40. Spot price was also in pullback, dropped from 106 to 85, but signs now in some platforms that it is trying to make way up, getting towards 90. Another thing which I have been writing is that our next rise may come in end March or April, so we have reached that stage. Another point in favour, some of the bigger U stocks in ASX doing better, any rebounds is led by them. So cautiously optimistic at this stage, no confirmation yet, this week should provide more info.
- Lithium Sector overview - Its still in consolidation phase, same as I wrote 2 weeks. Most Li stocks had a big bottom around Feb 6th (and around it). Most have recovered from their very bottom, though some still around it. A recovery happened. Many Li stocks gained between 20 to 50%. Now a back-test/consolidation phase is in play. Last week it looked better that a consolidation may have finished, this week from that perspective was not great. Looks like still some time to go - at least that is how I am playing, I could be wrong. ALB did not succumb this week, but neither did it show any positivity. Whole week traded in a narrow range of 120 to 128. The level 120 is held for now, lets hope it does, otherwise it might just trying to another 52 week low which will affect a lot of Li stocks, so a crucial week coming up. To get positive I would like to see ALB get over 128, but more importantly get towards 150, SQM over 60 - till that time it could be a cat and mouse game
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Personally:
My current situation this week - 15% U, 30% Li, 40% Others, 15% cash. Main change from last week is have increased Uranium from 5 to 15%, reduced Lithium from 50 to 30% and increased exposure to some more biotech/tech/gold etc, so Others went up from 30 to 40%.
U stocks I bought a few of them this week, watching now if we have seen a possible bottom - one more drop/bad day may/should come, and if we sustain that, I will more confident.
Li stocks have reduced my holding, starting early in the week, and also mentioned in one of my posts. There is nothing alarming at this stage, but it looks like, it is not ready - yet. But it can change in a day/week etc, so watching every move.
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In Others last week I had added a REE and biotech, this week added more in biotech, one gold, and one tech. Biotech generally doing all right, so hedging my bets there.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:- Not a good week, dropped from 4.1 to 3.8 and played with weakness. Shorters in control and if there is no good Li macro rise, I feel they are getting ready to do a new 52 week low, though I would like to be wrong, but I can't change things, best I can follow
- Key numbers to watch and play would be 4.4 on the upside, its become another resistance, 3.7 on the low side - so slightly narrower range than last week as numbers have dropped
- Personally I have to let go some of my shares at 4.1, so took around 10% hit - I didn't like the play here, as I have mentioned may times, price action is more important for me than anything, and that was not looking favourable, but I will come back once I see a change there. My only solace, I did a win last time from 4.6 to 6.9 as I mentioned before. Can't win all.
- Compared to last week, SYA is in a weaker zone - not only uncertain, but vulnerable
- In terms of where it sits currently, it is one of the stocks which is close to its bottom. But it has not been able to get ahead on good days, on week days, its still going a bit down. So overall I feel, the work is cut out now.
- Li sector lost 2% for the week across 96 stocks, so still weakness - now 3 weeks of slow decline, not looking great, though no panic yet
- US Li had also dropped 2%, so in line with ASX - nothing much to report there, slight weakness, drifting down, holding the level for now
- On Friday, US Li stocks had another drop. So no respite yet. We may start Monday on a weak note, but by afternoon, punters start thinking what may happen overnight, so either more drop or some recovery in afternoon, depending on sentiment.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks:
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(20min delay)
