Weekly Review Li Stocks - 24th May 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis.I also have performances of Li stocks for 2023 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future.Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks.The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week I have not added any new stocks to list, so my list still contains 96 stocks.
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.This week I don't have anything in my Personal section (holdings, price etc) as I have been shuffling some stocks. Hopefully back next week.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Markets
- SP 500 had a small hiccup this week, but rebounded well. So the higher path is still open. It made a new all time high of 5341 this week. Finished flat for the week though at 5304, last week 5303.
- Volatility Index VIX is at 11.93, a small drop from 11.99 of last week, - continues to stay in strong bull territory
- Last week I wrote that Bitcoin may get into 70k this week, it did so. Currently at 68k - still in a very strong bull territory
- Sentiment Indicator - back to Neutral at 53, last week Greed 65 - so again a divergence is there, again a lot of punters not believing that this rally will go much further ahead, or thinking a correction may be in play, or not happy that Commodities/Resource sector not part of this rally, but lets see, its just an indicator, has been wrong before
- Russell 2000 played poorly this week, lost over 1%, currently at 2059, last week at 2095, lagging other indicators strongly, and going backwards
- Yields after some drop after inflation numbers, now stuck in a narrow range and not coming down further
- Dollar Index not showing much move, needs to fall I feel
- Gold, Silver and Oil . all took hit this week
- Last week I wrote- overall one can be optimistic this week, depending on one's risk tolerance. I feel the same this week
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:
- SP 500 has done a new high, many waiting for correction, but some believe it may go a bit more so that a buffer is built for consolidation, staying above 5000 will be the key to keep the bullish momentum in swing
- Russell 2000 is key for us, commodity/resource, we want that to go up - its not doing great, lets hope things change - its been nearly 2 years now
- Key economic data this week around - PCE, GDP data to have small impact, rest usual
- Uranium Sector overview- Uranium stocks still doing all right, the bullish trend is on, a brief pause happened this week, but Friday US U markets had a very good day. The bullish run is still there, with 5 ASX U stocks making a new 52 week high on Monday, but most gave away the gains after that. CCJ too was looking a bit tentative, but had a strong Friday and keeps the hope alive for another dash to the top over 55. I have been calling CCJ to reach between 55 to 60 in this rally, it reached 54.93 this week, so theoretically has met the number I was thinking about. Weekly perspective it remained flat, which is not a bad thing. ASX U stocks no change in pattern, big stocks doing well, mid stocks average and small stocks not good. I feel this week may be defining week for U stocks, if it can hold the level, good chance that we may have an extended rally well into June, otherwise it could top here and take a breather. General market direction may also help. But U stocks in a boom period, best not to assume anything and follow price action.
- Lithium Sector overview- Before Friday, Li stocks were looking shaky. ALB lost the play of 130s and dashed to low 120s. But on Friday, it nearly reached the key number of 128 - which I feel is the neutral zone, SQM just under 50. Both at neutral state. So the hope is still there that the sector will move up from here than down. But Li stocks overall are still hurting, and like Uranium stocks, the biggest hit has happen to the small and mid sector - comparatively. Ganfeng too lost 4% for the weak and continues to play in weakness. Most of the bigger ASX Li stocks had a decent drop this week. US Li lost 6% this week inspite of a good Friday, wiping out all 6% gain from previous week. So no clear direction yet and sector can't decide what next to do.
- REE Sector overview- This week REE stocks a similar play like Lithium, and many stocks were in red, made a weekly loss of 2% across 30 stocks I track. WA1 has continued its march up, every week for several weeks its making a new high. Another high this week. Has done another of its retreat, which for many may look a similar from before. But overall sentiment has softened further and many REE stocks are struggling now. So for those holding, looks like a waiting game (overall sector perspective), individual stocks could still do well
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Personally:
I have been shuffling around some stocks so thought will skip this week my holdings etc..
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- Not a good week for SYA, moved from 5.3 to 4.2, wiping out last week's gain, only solace we still hold the big gain from 3.3 couple of weeks back
- Last weekend I wrote I didn't understand the 40m auction, from inside I didn't like, especially because 3 months back we had a big rise towards 7 and PLL transfer happened, and we were smashed down. That was not long time back. The wound was still fresh. I had also lost in that play from 4.6 buy to 4.1 sell. Unfortunately it again played out that way - till now, it could change, if the 4 level holds and we get over 4.8/5.1, we could be back. So lets see. I will not assume and will follow price action. For most who are long term hold and want to hold, lets hope we are the last of volatilities. We also need Li macro to be in our favour, its in neutral state currently, but that could change - lets hope we get a good one
- Volume on Friday was 55m - first low volume day after long. One of the stabilising indicator is volume. So if volume is low and we stabilise, I still feel its better play that early 3s to be in early 4s - it will definetly help for the next rise, the quantum. So keeping on volume as well.
- The big number to play is to get over 5.1, last week I was thinking about 7.5, but the reality is different now, but 5.1 is a good number to be over, suddenly things could change dramatically, stock markets sometimes run on sentiment as well, and above 5.1 will bring in a lot of play.
- As I wrote yesterday, I exited my position at 4.9. I had buys at 3.7/4.1 and 4.9 with average buy 4.1. I just about recouped my losses from last PLL play. I had written 5.1 needs to hold, worst 4.8. Monday play didn't look good, and I exited. I am not sure of what next number I will play, for me trend is more important than number, so lets see
- Like last week, 2 stocks did a new 52 week high - MIN/VUL - there is ap pattern developing in last 2 weeks (disclosure I hold VUL)
- Li stocks was flat for the week across 91 stocks, but many big stocks were in red
- Li stocks down 26% for the year, so still in big red territory overall.
- ALB needs to stay over 128 for hope to keep that we are recovering. Otherwise I feel it will be an uphill task. One scare has nearly been dealt this week when it moved towards 122, but came back well on Friday at 127, so keeps the option open of a good play
- On Friday US Li were in green, decent. ASX Li may start Monday with some hope but by afternoon Ganfeng and futures may make provide better direction
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks
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(20min delay)