Weekly Review Li Stocks - 14th Jun 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis.I also have performances of Li stocks for 2023 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future.Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks.The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week I have not added any new stocks to list, so my list still contains 96 stocks.
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.This week I don't have anything in my Personal section (holdings, price etc) as I have been shuffling some stocks for June tax transactions. Hopefully back next week.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Mark
SP 500 continues on a rampage, a new all time high at 5447, finished at 5431, a gain of around 1.6% from last week 5346. The incredible journey. Every week, no not for weeks, but months I have been writing how strong the index is playing. So many people, seasoned analysts waiting for correction, but it doesn't want - running on steroids.
Volatility Index VIX is at 12.66, a slight rise from 12.22 of last week, - but still continues to stay in strong bull territory
Bitcoin looking very strong, looks like in consolidation, at 66k now
Sentiment Indicator - on 38 in, can you believe it, SP 500 make new highs every week, but punters are not confident - they should have been in Extreme Greed, or at least Greed. But they lost Neutral where it was for last few weeks. Now its Fear. This sentiment is forward looking, and what punters are saying, its gonna drop. Markets and SP 500 will drop. But they have been wrong for several weeks now, so its a balance now, play for fear or follow the trend - the big bullish trend. Best to follow price action.
Russell 2000 is doing very bad. It was already doing bad. But last two weeks is going to worse. No wonder commodities, risk-on assets, Lithium/REE etc struggling. This week it finished at 2006, lost 1% while other indices were making merry. Very tough times for risk assets, small/mid capsYields some good drop after inflation numbers, a good sign for rate cuts
Dollar Index at similar level, not budging, a divergence
Gold, Silver and Oil - no clear direction this week, in holding pattern, very slight positive
Last week I wrote- overall has to play with caution this week, depending on one's risk tolerance. I feel this week is to play again with caution - especially due to ASX June tax transactions.
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:
SP 500 is still in strong territory. Many still believe we may see a correction in June, but last week's trading indicates its not yet ready. So lets see, I think this week will give an indication for the rest of the June. I said same thing last week, I feel its the same
Russell 2000 is key for us, commodity/resource, we want that to go up - its not doing great, lets hope things change - its been nearly 2 years now
Key economic data this week around - No major economic data this week, technicals will take control, I feel
Uranium Sector overview- I made a call several weeks back that CCJ will make new highs between 55 to 60 in this phase of rally. It reached 56.24 previous week. 4 weeks back I also first wrote that the current rally will peak in next 2 weeks. Many big ASX U stocks made 52 week high during those two weeks. This week ASX U stocks lost 3% on a weekly basis, last week it lost 9%. What does it say? Did my prediction that we would peak out by end of May turn correct? Will CCJ also fall down and 56.24 become the high of this phase? Very early days, but there are indications. The sector is still in a bull pattern in last 6 months, so correction can happen. Or we may not see a correction now and continue to rise. Its best not to make assumptions but follow price action. Last week I wrote I had exited all my U stocks, most sold before end of May, a balance after that. I have not yet bought. I will be watching, will get in immediately if I get signs that it wants to continue. But my gut feel is we will see a correction. Last week the big ASX U stocks which made highs, had fallen 15% from their highs. This week they are sitting at 20% drop from their recent highs. If correction happens, I an thinking we could a drop between 30 to 40% from their highs, so another 15/20% drop can happen, easily. For those long, they may ride this (if it happens), because riding the plays has played out very well till now. My comment and play is only for those who want to do short-term trading.
Lithium Sector overview- Last week I wrote that - "Lithium sector is in serious trouble". This week I feel we are in the worst of phase, and we could see some capitulation soon. . ALB lost another 10% for the week. Last week I wrote ALB is in danger of making a fresh 52 week low below 106 this week. It did. Its currently at 103. There is a big chance now it drops below 100. Dropping below that will crush Li sentiment. We could see some wild swings. First signs of strife happened two years back in June around 20th or so, we thought that was the worst. I am fearing something bad, lets hope common sense prevails. But its nearly exactly two years, around June 20 - not good. Ganfeng too lost 5 % for the week. So overall indicators are on decline. Many of the bigger ASX Li stocks, which are more representative of direction, were in red, average decline around 10% for the week, including, PLS, LTR etc, so big drops happening now, indication of a free fall. Last two weeks we dropped, included 5% and 5%, and now 10% - its fear zone now. US Li lost 9% this week. Last week they lost 6%, before that lost 7%, and before that 6%. So in 4 weeks it has lost around 25-30% - that is very big and concerning. Many stocks making new 52 week lows every week. My sentiment is to play with extreme caution, especially around new plays. But things can change quickly, so best not to make assumption but follow price action.
REE Sector overview- This week REE stocks a similar play like Lithium, and many stocks were in red, made a weekly loss of 6% across 30 stocks I track. Last week I had mentioned how I had to get out of favourite play WA1, just over 20, didn't get the high, but broke my play of 10/15% hence got out as I had a buy at 8. This week it reach 1525, a big drop from 2320. Another REE play I was doing ENR - last week I wrote I don't like what it was doing and will possibly get out. I got out this week. My buy as I was wring for several weeks was at 31 average, got out at 35, not much gain, but didn't feel good how it was trading, I could be wrong, it finished the week on 31. Other REE stocks also not doing. ME1 which I used to play a lot and exit several weeks back is testing its lows. Also got out of BRE - I had a short play there - here I got out due to June tax transaction play, I was late to the party, my buy average was 280, got out this week at average 350, again not big gain, but I was feeling a bit iffy, I could be wrong..
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Personally:
I have been shuffling around some stocks due to June tax transactions, so thought will skip this week my holdings etc. Same thing I have been writing for last 3 weeks as well. But I have been. Last week I wrote I had got out of a lot of stocks, my usual cash holding was 20%, last week it was 65%. This week its at 75%, as I have got out of U sector and few REE stocks. So I am taking a stab that general markets, ASX June tax transactions may cause some weakness. I am holding some Health stocks which I have been writing for months - DXB (average 30.5), BOT (19.5), PYC (average 8.3) - fortunately all are up. I wrote how I got out EYE fourth health stock I was playing, my buy was 23, I got out at 27 as I didn't like how it didn't go over 30, now its at 22.5. For me personally, next two weeks, I want to pick up some stocks who may look in distress, but have potential, but are suffering more because of short-term sentiment or due to ASX June tax transactions. I will write about them. I am holding good cash now, I hope I have not taken a wrong decision. Its just my personal play, my thinking - I could be wrong, so please dyor and check for yourself.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
Not a good week for SYA, moved from 3.9 to 3.6.We have lost 4 for now. Not a good look. The big number to play is to get over 4.1, if it falls 3.2 comes into play, 52 week low. We had thought we had gone beyond that after Feb play, but now there is real danger. LI macro very weak. ASX June tax transactions coming up. I don't want to say, but it looks inevitable that 3.2 will be breached. For all holders, I wish it does not happen that way.Two weeks back I wrote I had exited my positions, closer towards 5, can't believe how stocks keep on fallingLi stocks lost 5% for the week across 91 stocks, but many big stocks were in red, big red losing around 10%Li stocks down 36% for the year across 91 stocks, so still in big red territory overall.ALB needs to stay over 100 to keep the sentiment. A drop below that, we may see some capitulation, very high volatility, lets hope it does not happen that way.On Friday US Li were in big red, so maybe not a great start to the week on Monday, good chance of a decent red
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks
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(20min delay)