Weekly Review Li Stocks - 16th Aug 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis. I also have performances of Li stocks for 2023 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week I have not added any new stocks to list, so my list still contains 96 stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Market
- SP 500 looks like it has regained its mojo. It dropped close to 10% from its all time high, it was in a critical juncture where any further fall, many analysts thought it could be up to 20%. Last week it recovered later in the week and finished flat for the week. This week it finished nearly 4% up. Last week was at 5344, this week 5554. So really good in general markets. All time high is at 5669, now within 2% of it.
- Volatility Index VIX is at 14.80, last week at 20.37. So VIX after reaching 60s and creating a panic, is now telling, bulls are in control, below 15 - another positive indicator for general markets.
- Bitcoin wavering, still volatile but now volatility in 5% range rather than 20% range. At 59k currently, down from 61k last week, but still within similar zone. No strong indicator now from Bitcoin.
- Sentiment Indicator - on 35, Fear, last week 24, Extreme Fear. So sentiment changing as well, though it could be a lagging indicator.
- Russell 2000 this week played nearly same as other indices, gaining around 3%, moved from 2080 to 2141. But if commodities, small caps, risk-assets have to do better, we need a much bigger move. It has been worst performing index, and still is. Lets hope it turns. We need rotation into these sectors for some big gains
- Yields slightly down from last week, hovering around 3.9.
- Dollar Index too going like Yields,
- Gold, Silver on the rise again, Oil - no major direction.
- So overall markets looking like regaining its loss of 10% - in a slightly positive frame this week
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:
- SP 500 may try to get to another all time high soon, who knows, maybe next week. So long as 5119 holds, the upward trend is intact.
- Russell 2000 is trying to recover, we need some big weekly jumps over here, 5%+, not taking 1 step forward and 1 back. Lets hope it turns.
- Economic data - FOMC minute on Thursday morning, Powell speech on Friday night - major movers, rest usual data
- Uranium Sector overview - I have been writing for couple of months, May end top, July end bottom, September end top. CCJ to reverse from here. This week CCJ played mostly around the next key level of 39/40, after reaching 35.43 previous week. So behaviour at this stage looks like consolidation. Its a key level, so some churn may happen around here - in fact its already happening. How long? I don't know. From numbers perspective, if it can stay above 35.43, the reversal play could still be happening. But if it loses 35.43, for me it would be an uncertain state and I play accordingly. On the upside, key is to get to 45. If it can reach there, very good chance of another all time high beyond 56.24. This phase I am expecting mid 60s if things go fine. But very early days, we will know more as we go. I had exited all my U stocks end of May. I was writing for last 2 months I will buy over here. I bought 40% last week, another 40% this week, rest I will see. Any weakness I will exit and then wait. We had our first green week after 4 weeks of red, so a good sign.
- Lithium Sector overview - A mixed week. Both ALB and Ganfeng made 52 week lows. ALB recovered 10% from its lows, Ganfeng is within 1% of its low. PLS buying LRS provided some impetus. So is it the bottom? Some signs, but nothing clear at this stage. Confirmation is still away. But PLS buy of LRS has given some momentum to sector. Many feel these type of actions happen near bottom. The problem is - Lithium prices continue to decline. It still lost 5% for the week, 15% for the month. Many stocks still doing 52 week lows like every other week. So we need some more change, some more data to start talking seriously about bottom. Many of the rises in Li stocks could be attributed to Technical bounce rather than Fundamental bounce, except LRS gain. So at this stage, an open mind, some signs and hope that it continues. On the positive side, first green week after 4 weekly reds, so certainly some signs are there.
- REE Sector overview - REE stocks having a similar play like Li sector. Last 5 weeks, REE stocks on average were in red. This is first time after 5 consecutive reds, we got a green. Li/U sector similar behaviour, so may be common feature. So have we seen the bottom in the sector now? Still early days, though some hope is either, not enough data to think its happening. A confirmation could be still a while away. General markets are behaving well, that can certainly help the cause.
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Personally:
This week for me similar to last week. Last week I had bought 40% of U stocks I wanted to buy. This week U stocks were in consolidation. I had thought if they don't drop, I will keep on buying. Bought roughly another 40% or so. Rest I will see how it goes in next week or two. U stocks I am playing (LOT/AGE/CXU/EL8/BMN/BOE/DYL/PDN/SLX/AEE). I like to spread, in case one or two doesn't work. Its individual choice, sometimes one stock may give biggest rise. I try to reduce risk of specific stocks not doing well. Besides Uranium, I am playing very cautiously, not playing Li/REE at this stage. Just a few stocks here and there. Other plays in health stocks, with some splattering across Gold and Oil/gas - most of these I play standard spreading the money, so don't usually write there, but currently I have got around 10 stocks in these sector I am playing there.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
- Last week I wrote the next number, if we go down, would be 2.5. We breached that this week, made a new 52 week low at 2.4. Slight recovery though, moved up to 2.7, finished at 2.6, 1 pip down from last week of 2.7. Really tough time for holders and I could see some very committed ones have folded. I still remember that person, holding 6m+ shares, holding crossing towards 2m, and to lose over 90% of that is not a good thing. I felt gutted after reading that post. I still remember one day, we we in mid teens, and that poster said some play is happening, I will try to put my 6m shares on sell and see what happens. Heart wrenching outcome. I don't want to give advice, as I too make a lot of mistakes, and I believe there is no right or wrong. Those reading my posts would see two things what I do - I always play with roughly 30/40% of my stocks and keep selling/buying. Secondly, any drop from one point of 10/15%, I exit a portion again, thinking if it goes up I will buy back. Buying at higher price is not a problem as the current holding of shares is also increasing. But I understand. Most gains are also made just by continue to hold the stock on upside. What has happened now, also confirms, most losses are made by continue to hold the stock on downside. I hope next chapter at SYA is a positive one.
- From a weekly perspective moved from 2.7 to 2.6, a slight drop for the week
- Personally have not yet bought back. It looks ages now when I held. Last couple of years I have had only a spattering of holdings at times, I used to try but seeing a drop 10/15% used to exit. Overall would have been a break even for me, and I feel I would have held for only 5% of the time. But things will change one day, I am hoping.
- ASX Li stocks that I track gained 4% this week. So after 5 consecutive weeks of red, finally a green now. Last week I wrote - "Probability says we should get a green soon, it happens when you toss a coin, it should happen here as well. Lets see." - Probability played its part
- US Li gained 2% for the week. US Li has been battered as well, so small relief, though ALB was still down for the week.
- Li stocks down 47% for the year, so not a good look. It means, since 1st Jan 2024, on average across 90 stocks, they have lost half their value. And this is on top of declines last year, and year before. Very concerning.
- On Friday general markets were in green, US li stocks slight green, not much though. But PLS/LRS has provided some momentum, many ASX Li stocks have gained around 10%+ after that event. Next week will be a test, if other Li stocks like ALB/Ganfeng continue to decline, those stocks will continue to rise or will give up to Li macro play? But if ALB/Ganfeng and Li macro is positive, there is a good chance of bottoming over here. I am watching carefully. As I have written, no confirmation yet from a fundamentals perspective, at this stage it looks like technical/sentiment bounce. Lets hope it changes into fundamental.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks:
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(20min delay)