SYA Weekly Report, page-196

Weekly Review Li Stocks - 6th Dec 2024

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis. I also have performances of Li stocks for 2023 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.

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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week I have not added any new stocks to list, so my list still contains 90 stocks.

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How are we going in 2024 - General Market

• SP 500 is back now in the bull phase. Highest finish ever on Friday at 6090. Highest number reached ever on Friday at 6099. Gained 1% for the week from last week 6032. Numbers tell the story.
• Volatility Index VIX is at 12.77, big bull territory
• Sentiment Indicator in Neutral at 53, last week Greed at 67. So this is a divergence, punters thinking this run will not be sustained. Lets see.
• Bitcoin is on a tear. Few weeks back after making new all time high above 73k, I asked - can 100k be the next target. I didn't think that would happen so soon. Bitcoin currently has reached that target, crossed 100k, now consolidating - at 99k. Couple of years back was trying to hold 20k, what a turnaround
• Russell 2000 still not doing well, so commodities, risk sectors, now is back to its usual weakness. That has been the story with Russell for over 2 years. Not able to sustain. It lost 1% this week, now at 2408, last week at 2434 - and in a week that SP 500 gained 1% - concerning
• Yields dropping,
• Dollar Index still very strong
• Gold at 2633, Silver at 31.19, Oil at 67.17, no major movement this week
• So general still looking great, caution has been thrown to the wind. But for those playing commodities/resource - U/Li/REE - not so great.
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• What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:
  
  • SP 500 still in bullish mode, has reached its target of 6000, but appetite to go higher still strong, doing new highs now
  • Russell 2000 still not doing well. We want to see this build up. Any fallback will not be good for small caps. Not good for commodities, resources, risk-on stocks - tough times ahead. If it does not do better, it will be reflected in our Li/U/REE/Nickel/Copper/Iron Ore/Graphite etc stock prices. Only if see big gains in this index, rotation signs will happen.
  • Economic data next week - CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday, these inflation data could provide some direction
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  • Uranium Sector overview - CCJ in very strong bull territory. No stopping it seems. I have been writing for last couple of months now, before CCJ crossed 56.24, that if it makes a new high above 56.24, it could go up to between 65 and 70. On Friday it reached 62.55. So its on target. Finished at 61.06, gained over 2.5% this week.
  • But unfortunately we can't say anything positive about ASX U stock - I mean U stocks which are primarily played in ASX. PDN/LOT flat, BOE lost 5%, DYL gained 1%. The divergence between ASX and US U stocks which started in August, has been growing and growing.
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  • If this trend continues, punters who want to play U sector, have to play US U stocks
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  • CCJ has gained 45% this year. Most ASX U stocks have lost around 30 to 40% this year. Cumulative effect is a loss close to 80%, if one had played US U stocks rather than ASX U stocks.
  • This doesn't mean it will remain like this. Some may think of this as an opportunity, thinking more gains can be made in ASX U stocks. Its possible, but its now going for months. Its individual interpretation and expectation now.
  
  
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  • Lithium Sector overview - ASX Lithium stocks are in a strife. Most Li stocks made lows in early September. Then there was a revival. Most Li stocks gained 40 to 60%. It looked like we may be back. In last few weeks, all have been given away. Nearly. Most stocks have now breached and gone below the lows of early September. So a very, very concerning stage now for ASX Li stocks
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  • Chinese Li stocks still doing great. They also made lows in early September. They also started recovering. They also gained between 40 to 60%. But they did something differently to ASX Li stocks. They have kept the gains, most of it. Ganfeng on Friday was above 60% of its lows, Tianqi above 50% of its lows
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  • US Li stock still doing all right. They also made lows in early September. They also started gaining, around 40 to 60%. ALB on Friday was around 45% above its low. Other US Li stock not doing that great, but ALB the flag bearer is. So US Li stocks have also played differently to ASX Li stocks. They have kept the gains. .
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  • Why is this discrepancy/divergence happening? Not sure. Will it go away? Does ASX Li stocks become more attractive now, because if they were to do catch-up, they could do higher gains? Or is ASX Li stocks indicating, the run by US and Chinese Li stocks will not be maintained and they will come down? Or this is the new play - ASX Punters now have to deal with this, a lot may be driven by shorters as well..
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  • This divergence by itself, which is few weeks old in building, may not have been concerning. But this is what has happened to ASX Uranium stocks. It started in August. I initially thought that divergence is opportunity, ASX U are undervalued and gains could be more here. But it continued. And continued. Now its 4 months, and divergence is getting bigger rather than smaller. That sector under the shorters grip too. Is that the only reason? Or ASX punters have become too risk averse?
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  • REE Sector overview - REE sector mirroring Li play, so don't need to write something different.

...Personally:
Currently I am playing very cautiously the Lithium/Uranium/REE sector, with respect to ASX stocks. Very small U. I did buy a number of Li stocks on Friday. I am expecting US/Chinese Li to consolidate or go higher starting from Friday. Both slightly up on Friday. Lets see if it happens . And if they increase, will ASX Li get any benefit.
Over a month back I was writing I am looking at one Bio stock. 3 weeks back I bought at 4 and wrote on that thread 3 weeks back. I took some off last week, bought more then, but on Friday exited around two-thirds at around 65% gain. It raced from 4 to high of 7.3. I was very lucky as had played fairly big. There is a big announcement on Tuesday. I don't like announcement/drill results. I like Stage 1 (hope/hype/potential) and not Stage 2 (results/drill/bio announcement - etc). So exited due to that. I will see how Tuesday goes before deciding my next play.
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.Other usual plays which I have been writing for quite sometime. Have hedged to some other stocks while U/Li sort themselves out..
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Stock/Sector specific Info:

• This week SYA played the ASX Li macro. It is now playing in this range between 3 to 3.8 now for nearly 10 weeks. Not getting any strong directions for now. But now toying with lower range - whole week was whether 3 will hold if things don't go well
• From a weekly perspective, moved from 3.2 to 3.
• Personally playing small, but playing till 3 holds.
• ASX Li stocks that I track was flat for the week across 90 stocks
• US Li lost 5% this week, so not a good week
• Big ASX Li stocks struggling - LTR lost 14%, PLS 6%, WC8 4%, SYA 6% - so in song with US Li stcoks
• Chinese stocks mixed for the week, Ganfeng lost 3.5% for the week, Tianqi slightly in green
• Li stocks still down 40% for the current year 2024, so not a good look, and lot to cover
• On Friday US Li were in green. I am looking for a bounce this week on technicals, lets see how it goes.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Numbers for US Li stocks:
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