SYA Weekly Report, page-31

Weekly Review Li Stocks - 4th Nov 2022

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.

.
Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
.
I have also included my Diary - predictions, my holdings, my plans for the week. Caution around Diary - This is just my opinion/plan. Probability wise one person can be wrong many times, even all the time, so please use information accordingly. So for those who like leisurely reading, enjoy.
..
.
My last weeks report, luckily most things have come as I expected, including risk/reward etc. I can be lucky with my calls, so please use information accordingly.
.
.
Overall for this week - I was hoping that we will continue from the second level we had achieved last week at 3900 and go for 4100/4150 on SP 500. That was not to be. We lost 3900. Then we lost 3800. We had a wild Friday, we were looking like going back to 3600 as we started reaching 3700 on SP 500, but - we finished at 3770. The chances of another push to 3800 and 3900 is still alive. But overall from indices perspective we are down.
.
.
Risk-Reward from here ( this is still relevant even after two weeks and hence copied from my 2 week back weekly report):

• I have been following the price action very closely, in my figures, rise from June bottom etc.
• There is a chance we can have another sell down next week on indices - we could reach lower low (below 3491 on SP 500) or higher low.
• At this stage, punters, markets have factored in all bad news, most feel we are near bottom, if not we have seen bottom.
• If indices were fall, even big, stocks that I follow would drop another 10 to 20% - most likely another 10%.
• But if what I am reading and seeing in price action is that we are near bottom or seen bottom, and its time to rally, we are looking at gains between 40% to 100% in next few months - individual stocks will carve their own path though where they fall
• So at this stage of market - Risk-Reward is very good, one of the best I can think for a while

.
.
Next week SP 500 path:

• A big week coming with CPI rate
• We had a wild Friday on employment data - big 2% up and down. We finally finished in green. At 3770 - at a land of nowhere - neither bullish, not bearish
• Many feel this price action is what we see in bear market rally and not on final reversals - so they feel we have not seen our final bottom of this whole phase
• For next week - targets are same I have been talking about - we need to hold 3720 on SP 500 or we go to 3600 or lower. On upside, we need to gain back on 3800 - which we didn't do on Friday
• CPI on Thursday 10th Nov may provide

.
.
Personally: As mentioned last week, I went in with risk on attitude. On Thursday, after SP 500 fell for 2 days, I did sell some of my stocks -as I wanted some cash if market falls further. I am still holding to that cash. My plan - I will wait for price action. Most analysts are still bearish, depending on individual stocks I will decide to do. As I mentioned on risk-reward, I am still hoping we don't have big price drops even if indices falls. But I will be following and changing my strategy every day as the price action happens - something I learnt this year is not to get fixated with one thinking and opinion and react as it happens.
.
.What are analysts saying - without getting into detail, most are bearish. Most play charts, and charts are bearish. Some on fundamentals, like Chris whose video I used to post, they are more bearish. Many feel that SP 500 could fall to 3200 level, so we should be open to the idea. a fall of another 10% on indices - hoping that stocks hold their levels - a tough ask, but it can happen.
.
,
.Stock specific Info: ( from last week, I feel nothing has changed)

• ESS needs to hold 46c
• Next week if markets improve, then I have a good feeling we will be mid 50s
• If markets fall down for some reason, I still feel we could touch 44c, I feel we may not go lower than this, lets see
• I am holding a decent amount of stocks, I am holding, and will hold, hopefully I am right

.
.
Here is the Figures for the Week:
..
.
.
.
Figures for US Li stocks:
.
.
.
.
.
Rise from June Bottom:
.
.
.
.
.
.
My Diary -
.
Mostly good, but just be careful?
.
.