Weekly Review Li Stocks - 25th Nov 2022
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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I have also included my Diary - predictions, my holdings, my plans for the week. Caution around Diary - This is just my opinion/plan. Probability wise one person can be wrong many times, even all the time, so please use information accordingly. So for those who like leisurely reading, enjoy.
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There are no new additions this week, so my stock list contain 54 stocks.
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Overall for this week - General Markets - SP 500 - For over couple of months I have been calling that we need to be above 3900 on SP 500. Also, a big likelihood that we may test 4100/4150. After much ups and downs, we closed at 4026 on Friday. So now we have crossed two very big resistance 3900 and 4000. But unfortunately that's not enough to confirm a bull run. We need to get over 4065 the 200 day moving average first - this has been a big thorn and has pushed us down in March/May/August. Next is strong trending line at 4140 or so. Finally, if we cross 4230, it will confirm that we may have seen the bottom. Otherwise lot of analysts are calling that we may drop another 20% and see between 3100/3400 - so we are big rise and falls now.
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Overall for this week - Li stocks - One of the very weak week for Li stocks. Some reports again talking about demand/supply and spooking punters. ASX Li after making good gains in early part of the week finished very weak. After losing average 4% last week, we lost another 4% this week - so not good, US Li stocks also later part in the week, but they made very good gains earlier, so lost only 1%, though last week they lost 14%. All this is signalling that there is a bit of turmoil in Li space and many are selling out, probably institutions to make such a big drop. Macro is still strong. We have gone thru this phase once and come back stronger. I feel we will again. But something to watch for, especially those trading for short-term. I will be looking for a firm reversal before buying back that I sold, even if I have to pay higher.
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Next week SP 500 and other indicators path:
- A big week coming up. I have been calling for a big fight at 4100/4150 level - its on now
- For next week - first target around 4100/4150 - to get over 200 day moving average - that will be bullish
- Next immediate level is 4230 - long term trend line sloping downwards. Overcoming this will be another bullish sign
- If we cross 4230, we don't know what will happen. Very few contemplated that we may reach here. We may have to take one step at a time and look what happens.
- For those not convinced of the rally, profit taking can happen at levels I mentioned
- Yields are decreasing, Dollar index falling, VIX falling - all positive for stocks
- No major economic drive for next week.
- Powell speaking on Wednesday - he may provide direction
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Personally: I still believe risk-reward is good. But short term volatility is there. This week I sold out some more to balance my risk. As on Friday, I was 40% cash. Last week I was 35% cash, so sold more than bought. I want to buy, but waiting on something to give me direction - Firstly it can be price action and stock price start rising. Secondly, if we cross 4060/4120/4230 on SP 500 then there is a very good chance of another 4 to 5% on index, which can bring another 20% on stocks. after that we just need to follow price action. For those long, it does not matter, hold tight.
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.What are analysts saying (similar to last week)- Analysts in general feel we may see 4100/4200 on SP 500. But half the analysts are still resolute that we are going back to 3200 on SP 500 - another 15 to 20% down on Index, even if we reach 4200. They have not given up even after good economic data on inflation. If there I was one thing I was worried - its that - these analysts have not changed their opinion. There are others though who feel we may have seen bottom of this phase from Oct 13. So we have to keep adapting as events unfold. No one knows for sure, and analysts are also confused.
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..Stock specific Info:
- Trading in similar zone this week
- Last week I said "Its in trading range 20.5 to 24. If markets fall, we could see a touch of 20.5 like last time. Last week I said I will be lurking at 21c" - I bought more at 21c
- Unless specific SYA announcement, I feel we will trend general and Li trend. So there is a chance of a volatility in next couple of weeks - both to the upside and downside. The reason downside is because we are affected by institutional sell as part of index
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks:
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Rise from June Bottom:
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MY DIARY - its good, but please be careful !!.
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(20min delay)