Weekly Review Li Stocks - 8th Mar 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis. I also have performances of Li stocks for 2023 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week I have not added any new stocks to list, so my list still contains 96 stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Markets
- SP 500 made yet another new All Time high this week, not surprisingly, again on Friday, at 5189. But unlike other Fridays, it didn't close on the high. Closed at 5123. On a weekly perspective, lost around 0.25% from 5137 last week - still in the range, still very strong.
- Volatility Index VIX is just under 15 - still very bullish, for months now has kept this bullish level, which is also reflected in indices, but now testing some levels - people have started thinking how long can this uptrend in indices go
- Bitcoin there is no stopping, last week I wrote 61k, this week its 68k, before that 51k. I wrote we may see a new ATH next week, we got it. So no stopping at this stage. Hopefully bodes well for taking risk in market for risk-on/resource/commodity stocks
- Sentiment Indicator - at Greed 71 - for last several weeks it has been hovering around 77 to 78 Extreme Greed - now its at Greed, another indicator which is questioning how long can this uptrend in indices go
- Russell 2000 overall not doing great, more important indicator for risk-on/resource stocks. This week it gained around 0.3%, made a new 52 week high, so going in right direction but lot of catching up has to be done - its so behind, but definetly doing slight better than other indices which is a good sign
- Yields dropping moderately this week and going in right direction, though it has to fall more
- Dollar Index also started making a move down, so another good sign
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li:
- There are some indications now that Indices may want to do back test. Last week I wrote they still want to go ahead, and it did make a new 52 week high. But now some doubts are coming, many believe a backtest/consolidation etc might be healthy, so many warming up for that.
- Russell 2000 is key for us, it needs to go up more and outperform other indices, it has started, it may continue to claw in the difference. It did better once again than other indices, but marginally. We need more.
- Key economic data this week around - Inflation data which may give some market direction
- Uranium Sector overview - Uranium Spot price is in consolidation mode after making 106 high, now at 93.5, last week was 95. U stocks also in consolidation phase. There were signs that finally U stocks may have done their consolidation, I have been talking about for weeks how I wanted to see CCJ at 39, it reached there, a small recovery happened, but on Friday another bad day for U stocks - which means the consolidation is not over. We have had good rises in September, then early Jan, I have been feeling it will take another 3 months for next one, hence have been saying March/April for sometime. It looks like it may play out that way, but only if there is a recovery. There is no guarantee. Lot of big players come to the market, make big gains, and then exit - bagholders are left for next rise. Its a repetitive behaviour. Die-hards don't want to accept, but its a reality, for more than 3 years I follow and play U stocks, very closely, and every time its similar (I wouldn't say same), but many don't want to accept it. Follow price action as the sector can be easily manipulated because of its size - very small. CCJ needs to hold 39, once again, if it gets there, else 35 comes into play. Upside, it just needs to slowly chip up and get to 50s for a start.
- Lithium Sector overview - Its in consolidation phase. Most Li stocks had a big bottom around Feb 6th (and around it). Most have recovered from their very bottom, though some still around it. A recovery happened. Many Li stocks gained between 20 to 50%. Now a backtest/consolidation phase is in play. The good path is that we return to uptrend after this backtest. The bad path is we succumb to another big down trend. At this stage, to me it looks like a backtest. Mainly because Spot is holding, macro is not getting worse. But are we ready for the big boom? Slow down. If we can get this backtest done successfully with much bigger lows, yes the dream lives on. Otherwise follow the price action. I would do that, rather than getting emotional. ALB touched a key level 118 on Friday. Although it dropped on Friday, I was happy to see it hold 118. It gives a better chance to get over 128 soon. If it had gone to 112 or 115 it would have been more difficult. So although a drop, but considering a big gain previous day, still not bad. But in needs to get to 120s Monday/Tuesday - only problem is if indices are not doing well, But lets see.
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Personally:
My current situation this week - 5% U, 50% Li, 25% Others, 20% cash. Major change from last week is have decreased Li exposure slightly from 60 to 50%, and increased into some Gold/Biotech stocks.
(same as last week) U stocks I had two good gains in September and January. Now I am hold 1 big, few others small, mostly trading - otherwise in a wait state, looking for cue for next leg. Its in correction mode. It has reached the levels down where I thought it may go if its a correction - falling more might be something more sinister. Will not be surprised if it comes back from here - my calculations for it to come back, was few more weeks, but it reached some levels where I wanted it to go, so am watching now.
(same as last week, but got out of a few which went up and gave small gains, ust to reduce exposure and move to other areas) Li stocks I am in a big way now, hold 2 large, another 3 medium to large - I am writing there. Hold 2 more medium and 4 more small - so at this stage holding 11 Li stocks as of Friday (last week was 15), others I don't write as my holding is not very significant.
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Also playing with some REE/Health/Gold stocks. (writing here same as last week, as same play is happening). Many REE stocks are doing same hype play what Lithium was last year. Lot of stocks buying land in Canada, jumping few 100% on hype. I call them Stage 1 - hype. Next comes, Stage 2 - Reality. Its best to get out before Stage 2 from a risk perspective although anything can happen. I certainly get out, closer it comes to reality or price action becomes bad. Hence a bit up on Others holding for me.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:- Topsy turvy week, but finished in red, from 4.5 to 4.1. Still playing in zone of early 4s, but strong resistance to get out
- Key numbers to watch and play would be 5.1 on the upside, 3.7 on the low side - so a wide range, but as it stands, the move up may happen on a very big break - whether it happens or not is to be seen
- Compared to last week, now SYA has got back to its weak zone, so some work needs to be done.
- In terms of where it sits currently, it is one of the stocks which is close to its bottom. Many others are much away from Feb 6 bottom. So many can think of a weakness, and it may be right if it continues to be weak, but many may think it could have much bigger bounce if Li sector turns around - I am playing for that, at this stage it may not look, but sometimes it does not take much for a turn
- Li sector lost 3% for the week across 96 stocks, so still in turmoil the sector
- US Li had a big down week - loss of 11% - Last week it gained 22%, so in a very volatile phase, symptoms of a big move coming, could be up or down, odds may favour up, but best to follow price action
- On Friday, US Li stocks were in decent red. ASX Li should start the week on some weakness. ALB held 118 - that was the only positive for me on he weakness. But ASX Li may look for direction now, so some swing on Monday is possible, for anyone looking for short-term trades
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks:
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(20min delay)
