Weekly Review Li Stocks - 3rd May 2024
Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of Li stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of Li Stocks in my analysis.I also have performances of Li stocks for 2023 - for those interested in looking at longer term view.
Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU Li stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future.Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks.The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU Li average. This is just for my tracking and analysis. I have both ASX and US stocks in two separate figures.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This week I have not added any new stocks to list, so my list still contains 96 stocks.
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How are we going in 2024 - General Markets
SP 500 finished this Week at 5127, staying above 5000 for the whole week. Weekly, around 0.5% gain.
Last week I had written that the threat of a 10% drop from its high has decreased, and odds of making a new high above 5264 is not bad. There was a scare, but 5000 held well, so that hypothesis stays for now.
Volatility Index VIX is at 13.49, drop from 15.03 of last week, a big drop of 8% on Friday - in strong bull territory now
Bitcoin doing wild swings, a big scare, drop mid 50k, but recovered strongly, back at 63k now
Sentiment Indicator - still at Fear at 40, last week at Fear 42, still in Fear zone, it has moved from 31 couple of weeks back, but is not reflecting other indicators, so slight divergence here
Russell 2000 overall did better than SP 500. This week it gained1.75% and now at 2035, but still lagging other indicators strongly
Yields has started dropping, it was on a tear last few weeks, but now seems to be easing, another indicator good for stock market
Dollar Index too retreating like yields and following similar patter, again good for stocks
Gold, Silver and Oil all down from their recent highs, Gold/Silver stabilising though
Overall one can be optimistic this week, depending on one's risk tolerance. Last week I wrote cautiously optimistic, this week its slightly better. Odds have got better to take some risks.
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What may happen next week - General Markets/U/Li/REE:
SP 500 is just under 3% below its all time high - will it have a crack soon?. Downside, if it can keep above 5000, still very bullish
Russell 2000 is key for us, we want that to go up - its not doing great, lets hope things change - its been nearly 2 years nowKey economic data this week around - No major data this week, usual weekly data job/housing etc
Uranium Sector overview- Uranium stocks this week were mixed, though slightly better than last time. Spot price, big jump from 87.35 last week to 92.40 this week, so looking good. 4 ASX U stocks made a 52 week high this week, after a while, very positive, but it was characterised by big stocks like PDN/SLX/BMN/LOT doing that, BOE just behind. Small to mid stocks not doing that great, there is always a lag, so for those with limited funds and playing multiple stocks, how to stagger the funds. One thing that could be better is CCJ, dropped slightly for the week, tested 45 a number I mentioned, so if sector has to go forward, I believe CCJ has to as well, otherwise the divergence will mean those going up may come down - something to keep an eye on.
Lithium Sector overview- Last week I wrote about ALB "I have been writing that ALB after losing 120s and falling below 118, chances of a new 52 week low below 106 was good. It came to 108 this week. Now slowly coming up. Needs to get over 118, then 128". This week ALB crossed 118 and finished at 128 on Friday. Right on my number 128. It took 3 weeks for it to gain back this level. First positive signs in 3 weeks. Key is to hold 130s and get towards 150. Many times in recent months it has retreated from 130s. On Friday also it crossed 130 but could not hold. SQM still below 50, has to cross that and to get 60. So in slightly neutral zone and out of weakness. Very critical juncture. So if things go well this week, time to get into the sector from a risk/reward perspective, as stocks have been battered, and any sentiment change could give decent rise.
REE Sector overview- This is what I wrote last week "For quite sometime REE sector was in same strife as Lithium sector, if not worse. But of late it is slightly outperforming Li sector. Still a long way to go though". Still doing slightly better than Li stocks, but not some key big ones or more advances players - they are still struggling. But any change in Li sector, which may happen, will have positive affect here as well. Again I have more plays in REE currently, but one of the reasons is Li sector is not doing well..
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Personally:
My current situation same as last week, but some rotation - 20% U, 10% Li, 50% Others, 20% cash.
U stocks I feel this week could be defining. Last week I had written I had got out of BMN, 1AE, GUE, LOT. The stocks BMN and LOT had done a new 52 week high shortly, so I had decided to take profits on best performers. So the change for the week - Have got back in to BMN/LOT, rotated some from CXU which is waiting for next leg after big stocks do well.Main stocks I am playing CXU, AGE, PDN, BOE, EL8, DYL, BMN, LOT
Li stocks have reduced my holding further. 6 weeks back it was 50%, last 2 weeks 10%. Even less now. I let go some AZL this week as it didn't cross some key level on a slight loss, still holding a big portion. This is the only change for the week. Playing just two - AZL/RDN. This week I have a feeling I may get into some more Li. Chances are Li stocks may start coming back on Monday based on Friday US Li play, something to watch for those waiting to get in - either that or wait for confirmation Monday US Li play.
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In Others (similar to what I wrote last week).
Rotated some stocks, overall percentage same. Main was got out of MEI and got into BRE. I have been doing numbers and its hard to ignore such a good price action, for that reason only I hold WA1 from $8, every week it was making 52 week highs. MEI is a good stock but has not gone anywhere in last one year, so will wait for a good price action there.
REE - WA1 (holding for long from $8), MEI (exited this week at 22.5, buy was 21, so not much play) , ENR ( 31, ), ENV ( 1.7, added a few more), RCR (6.5, last week average was 4.6, bought more so average gone up), BRE (285, got in this week)
Health - DXB (30.5), BOT (19.5), EYE (23), PYC (8.3)
Gold - PNR (from around 6 weeks 5.5)
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Stock/Sector specific Info:
From weekly perspective, no change and at 3.3. Trading in a very narrow range, no signs of a big reversal at this stage
Key numbers to watch and play - not sure - A month I wrote - "Personally I have to let go some of my shares at 4.1, so took around 10% hit - I didn't like the play here, as I have mentioned may times, price action is more important for me than anything, and that was not looking favourable, but I will come back once I see a change there. My only solace, I did a win last time from 4.6 to 6.9 as I mentioned before. Can't win all.". Have not bought back yet, a small amount I had, I let it go this weekSYA is still in a weak zone - not only uncertain, but vulnerableIn terms of where it sits currently, unless Li macro improves or specific new, further falls could still happen. But if things change, the rise can be equally spectacular - so best to watch price action, and wait for the turnLi sector was flat for the week across 96 stocks, had a big loss previous week, so stabilising . From a yearly perspective, still a loss of 29% across 96 stocks in this financial year, not looking good for the sectorUS Li gained 9% for the week, a big gain, but last week had a drop of 11%, so trying to claw back. ALB at my critical number of 128 - I feel it needs to hold here in worst case, in fact get towards 140 and possibly 150. Yes 150 will be very bullish for the whole sector.US Li stocks had very good gains on Friday, in fact later part of the week, it is coming back, if it continues the same play I won't be surprised if ALB is closer, if not up to 140.For those wanting to get early and take risks, this might be the moment. For those risk averse, wait for confirmation.
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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Figures for US Li stocks:
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(20min delay)
