Sybella Benchmarking vs Peers, page-104

Big news today in the rare earth sector - the Aus government has backed ARU to the tune of a whopping $840m in cheap debt funding for Nolans, which follows an earlier debt package for ILU refinery for $1.2B.

https://www.a f r.com/companies/mining/rinehart-backed-arafura-gets-840m-in-taxpayer-aid-for-nt-project-20240313-p5fc6r

Per their 2019 DFS, Nolans will produce 4,250 tpa NdPr oxide for an estimated $1.3-1.5B capex given 2019-2024 inflation + construction cost blow outs at the same level as recent LYC Kal refinery and ILU refinery builds.

My current estimate is sybella will produce 0.32 kg NdPr oxide per tonne ore based on their Phase 1 testwork and assumed 10% downstream losses. Which sums up to 3,200 tpa NdPr oxide at 10 mtpa, for ~$300m capex.

Good chance Sybella could get the whole capex bill covered by the federal government when the time comes... This is why a Western location for rare earth projects is essential for success.