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13:10
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Originally posted by T2CupAndHandle:
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China increased rare earth production quotas to their state owned mines three times in 2023, to do exactly that and crash the RE market. Nd price dropped from over 100 USD/kg to now 45 USD/kg. Prices now are well below where Lynas and Mountain Pass break even (plus both have huge ongoing capex bills), so the only two ex China mines will become distressed if current prices stay for long enough.. No rare earth developer I am aware of has been able to demonstrate a 20% IRR below 100 USD/kg Nd, so current prices mean pretty much no one has an economic project.. MEI may be the exception but let's see. Can't see China crashing the market much more given they already have what they want - no producer making a profit and no developer can start a project without huge government subsidies!
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I agre
Originally posted by T2CupAndHandle:
↑
China increased rare earth production quotas to their state owned mines three times in 2023, to do exactly that and crash the RE market. Nd price dropped from over 100 USD/kg to now 45 USD/kg. Prices now are well below where Lynas and Mountain Pass break even (plus both have huge ongoing capex bills), so the only two ex China mines will become distressed if current prices stay for long enough.. No rare earth developer I am aware of has been able to demonstrate a 20% IRR below 100 USD/kg Nd, so current prices mean pretty much no one has an economic project.. MEI may be the exception but let's see. Can't see China crashing the market much more given they already have what they want - no producer making a profit and no developer can start a project without huge government subsidies!
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(20min delay)