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masanga

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18/03/24

23:26

Post #: 72950519
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Originally posted by Big Poppa Pump: ↑

As promised, following their scoping study dropping today here is my take on RDM Sybella vs ARR Halleck Creek

The full table, basic economic models, comments by line can be found here:RDM Sybella vs ARR Halleck Creek.pdf

Some important notes:
No change to RDM inputs (other than share price, MMA price). I originally assumed a reduction in acid consumption to 25 kg/t from their RC chip work with optimisation. ANSTO have shown a drop to <20 kg/t with low drop in rare earth extraction, so I think this is fair until Phase 2 results are out.
Key data source for RDM cost assumptions (outside of RDM's data) is the Saturn Metals Apollo Hill PEA:https://saturnmetals.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/230807-Apollo-Hill-Preliminary-Economic-Assessment.pdf, a 10 mtpa gold heap leach with crushing-HPGR circuit, 300 km north of Kalgoorlie (middle of nowhere). I figure these costings are conservative as RDM should be cheaper to build, man and operate given proximity to Mt Isa compared to Apollo Hill.
The ARR study has what appears to be a huge oversight or very optimistic assumption - the Dy global recovery is twice as high as the underlying leach test recoveries. @CORNBRED found this and I recommend reading Post #:72941798. I calculated the global recovery for Dy/Tb from their source data rather than use their unjustified global recovery values (in the same way I work out RDM's recoveries). Will be interested in ARR's response to any queries on this. This is why the IRR and NPV below are lower than ARR"s values in their study.
Input NdPr price in the below comparison matches ARR's study value. I think this price is a good conservative estimate on forward REE prices compared to 150-200 USD/kg used by IXR and others.

ARR has a much higher head grade than RDM, but suffers from significantly higher CAPEX and OPEX (due to the beneficiation plant and hot leaching) per tonne of ore which largely cancels out the grade benefits. Location on both is very good for potential government funding support. ARR have a very complex circuit whilst RDM could not be more simple. ARR are making end products on site, so have better payables (and get paid on the lower value REE), whilst I have assumed RDM sell MREC intermediate to Lynas or Iluka for ease of start up and minimal technical/commissioning/ramp up risk.

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Out of GA's tomorrow
RDM Price at posting: 19.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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