Great questions. The full calculation for the IXR DFS Nd2O3 assumed price is in the third page in the PDF I attached. Basically you take their DFS basket price, their DFS basket composition, the current SMM pricing, derive the current basket price, which gives you a scale up factor (current basket vs DFS basket). I just apply the scale up factor to the current Nd2O3 price to get the equivalent Nd2O3 price used in the DFS. I wish companies stopped using basket pricing and made pricing assumptions transparent but unfortunately it is what it is.
I convert all magnet REE back to an Nd2O3 equivalent, so there is one single number driving the revenue in the model. RDM do the same, you can see the calculation in their met announcement. You get the same result if you keep all the four magnet REE separate (provided you make the assumption the ratio in pricing between the magnet REE is consistent as you scale up and down your assumed REE pricing).
Their DFS includes a Sc credit, which accounts for most of the difference from their DFS to my simple economic model (given Makuutuu has slim margins). I have serious doubts that getting paid for Sc has any credibility, given they are proposing to produce the entire global Sc annual production just from Makuutuu, effiectively doubling global supply whilst not affecting the Sc market price (and that's assuming they only run 5 mtpa and not scale up further). The Sc market is tiny.. Their DFS uses a 35-year mine life which increases NPV, and they would be using an optimised mine plan to mine the highest grade areas first. RDM could likely do the same on both fronts, so I believe my model is a pretty fair like for like comparison, until RDM drop their own feasibility study. Noted about the battery recycling facility and it will be interesting to see the feasibility study when it is released.
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Great questions. The full calculation for the IXR DFS Nd2O3...
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