Agree with your assessment. My aim here is to put Sybella on the same price assumptions as the project studies I am comparing to, IXR just happened to use high price assumptions in their DFS. My thinking is a long term price of NdPr around $100-120 USD/kg, at this price point nearly all Western REE projects in development won't come online without government support (too much CAPEX, IRR<20%), with only the lowest quartile companies like MEI (and RDM) getting over the funding hurdle. Anything long term at $150 USD/kg and higher and there is a host of REE hopefuls that come into play (ARU, HAS, ASM, PEK, IXR, TSX:ARA) which will bring more supply and correct the price.
I am eagerly awaiting MEI's upcoming scoping study with Ausenco so that I can do a head to head. I am predicting their input price assumption will be in line with peers at NdPr $120-150 USD/kg, anything lower and the IRR and NPV doesn't support their $400m market cap IMO.
RDM Price at posting:
18.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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