Evergrande is a grey rhino... it has already been priced in... everyone saw it coming.
But you have to be carful of Shimao Holdings. It can cause a Black Swan event.
Shimao Holdings passed all the 3 red lines and yet it is in trouble which brings forward the question: how many Shimao-like developers do China has that will be in trouble though they passed the 3 red lines?
The industry is opaque...
