Mitchmaan85,
Is it harder to pick than a broken nose (nod to the 12th Man)? No, it's not... check my posts on Appen (APX) and Cettire (CTT). I said a short squeeze was on the cards with CTT, I just didn't expect the share price to jump 80% the next day (screenshot below). The ASX is the wild west, there is no regulator, ASIC is so useless Andrew Bragg's Parliamentary Inquiry recommended it be abolished (the enforcement arm I mean, Moneysmart and the admin arm do a good job). How else could you come to any other conclusion if less than 1% of reports of market manipulation were actually investigated?!!!
Now that we are all on the same page that the ASX is an unregulated market, and capital raises to institutional investors (excluding retail) can be made where institutions participate and "invest" in a capital raise, but sell their holding in advance of the capital raise knowing that they will be issued their "sold" shares back at a much lower price... all illegal and no one goes to gaol. A bit like when Greece engaged Goldmann Sachs to falsify the national accounts to tweak things to enable Greece to get into the Eurozone, were caught red handed!...and no one went to gaol!!!!
Sorry, went a bit off track there.... apologies. I think you are right on the money. Occasionally you get caught with the famous technical analysis saying ("try to pick bottom, get dirty finger") as I have in the past....but take solace that I think you are right (that counts for squat), but what does count....
Mums and Dads, well their long investments can only sink to zero... but short sellers... well the price can rise to infinity... hence why a short squeeze is U2's, "the Sweetest Thing"...
(20min delay)