Good comments DoctorFouad Here are som addtional commenst that support what you are saying
1- "Syrah will justify and exceed through earnings its current valuation. This means Syrah will earn more than 65M$ of profits in 2018. Assuming average price per tonne (mostly small flakes) is 750$ and realistically achievable costs per tonne are 400$ that is 350$ profits per tonne. They need to sell this year 185.000 tonnes of graphite to justify the valuation. I would say very unlikely".
It is extreely unlikly Syrah is selling at usd750 FOB mine. Most of Syrah sales will be to China and with the cost of inland freight and ocean freight Syrah's FOB mine price will be most likely be much lower. Also you must add in Syrah's Sales & Admin costs which is not included in their 400/tonne costs. Finally how relistic is it for Syrah to sell all of their 2018 output. Yes they keep saying they are sold out but time will tell is this statement is really true.
2- "Syrah will not justify its current valuation. The stock price will take a hit. This is more likely IMO"
Like you DoctorFouadI believe Syrah is overvalued. Time will tell if we are both correct. Thanks for your honest comments.
SYR Price at posting:
$3.47 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)