Our friends who post the Russian Federation view on this forum may be better qualified to answer questions about the possibility of the Bosporus being closed. The Russians can supply their war efforts overland though Iran and Iraq and via the Mediterranean and so closing the Bosporous would be of nuisance value only.
Erdogan says he will have Afrin City surrounded in a few days. Will he?
Erdogan's strategy of constantly playing Trump off against Putin may have just imploded. They are the last 2 people in the world that a rational mid tier leader would wish to humiliate but the humiliation has been constant. At this level Trump's mindset will locked onto the humiliation he received when Erdogan set his bodyguards onto demonstrators and Police in Washington and secondly by the anti-American hysteria of Erdogan's recent propaganda. Putin may hold it in a little better than Trump but the hidden anger may also be at the high end of the scale.
As I see it, the US should replace Turkey in any de-escalation discussions but I hold to the view that the centre table should be free of all external influences, proxy speaker an warlords.
Erdogan has a big army but he certainly lacks the resources that Hitler had at his disposal in 1939.
Turkey's situation is ridiculous and unsustainable. Assuming that the US has actually been passing intelligence information (under the carpet) to the YPG we now have a populist Turkish president who is essentially at war with the United States, Russia, Iran, Assad, Syrian Kurds, Turkish Kurds all at the one time ..... and while rattling the sabre at Greece. Unless I'm missing something it's farcical.
Does Putin still want to engage with Turkey? The answer would be yes but with Erdogan at the helm there comes a point where the risks exceeds the potential benefit IMHO. Will Russia protect Assad Militia and Hezbollah fighters by at least closing Afrin air space again? Not to do so would IMHO be interpreted as humiliating betrayal of his allies. Maybe out pro-Putin posters could answer that one as well.
