Guess-timates on cash flow & Crux value:
Value of Crux deal $637m aprox (using $75m for 2% of crux as a guide)
Cash end Q3 $36m
Recoverable long term lead items? guess $30m
Est Cash flow Longtom Q4 $13m (if same as Q3)
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$716m
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Debt end Q3 $234m
Sedco liability? $30m
Longtom costs & repayments Q4 $27m
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$425m
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shares 1326m
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Rough value/share cash + crux - debts 425/1326 = 0.32
Add in speculative estimates for future earnings from Longtom & Prelude?
Add in speculative estimate for Echuca.
Undervalued at .11 I think even in worst case scenario. Downward push on price due to big sellers eg M&G. Seems like there must be a different reason for the big sales than just estimated value of the shares in the company.
With M&G selling lots this is convincing others to sell as well. How much do M&G want to get rid of? If it's all of them it will be a long time before sp goes up again.
Credit suisse seem to be picking quite a lot of them up!
Once everything settles down maybe the sp will get back to .30+?
Guess-timates on cash flow & Crux value:Value of Crux deal $637m...
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Change
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Mkt cap ! $61.25M | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| 20.0¢ | 21.0¢ | 20.0¢ | $3.624K | 17.75K |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 80261 | 19.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| 21.0¢ | 7325 | 1 |
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