systematic sell down, page-3

From my perspective the sp move since the initial Shell/Crux announcement in Jan is driven by an underlying scepticism of managements ability to get the deal over the line. This along with production issues at Longtom (and the Longtom debt) and the ongoing Echuca Shoals litigation has fueled a decline in sentiment and therefore sp. It is easier to focus on the negatives than the positives.
The Crux asset is a strange one; it appears that no other oil major is prepared to tackle it on their own therefore the apparently low mkt value of Nexus is not drawing out a TO. Only when the deal is signed will it have a quantifyable value. Analysts are likely to value it at $600 - $1bn depending on the timing of production.