A lot of 'ifs' are only a problem if they're AND 'ifs'. OR 'ifs' actually improve the situation.
If event X, AND event Y AND event Z are required, all probability of 10%, then you have a .1% chance of them all lining up.
If event A, OR event B, OR event C will get things moving, all probability of 10%, then you have a 28% chance of success (100%-((100%-10%)^3) = 1 - 0.9^3
t 20 no big surprises , page-151
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