I've always found the theory of a successful launch being...

I've always found the theory of a successful launch being already built into the SP crazy. Yes it is thought that it will be a success, but not guaranteed. Nothing guaranteed should be built into any SP. It's like saying a mining company who starts digging is expected to find gold, and when they do the SP won't rise.

I think this point has been proven in the last two days, people wanting to de risk before launch, then buy in at a higher price once a its successful. We will see a lot higher than a 8% increase either today or Monday if all goes to plan.