one thing to keep in mind when calculating the effect of the c/r...

  1. 494 Posts.
    one thing to keep in mind when calculating the effect of the c/r on the announced indicative offer price is the transaction will be negotiated based on an enterprise value as opposed to an equity value.

    By my rough calcs - 1.03 @ 177m shares represents an equity value of 182m - to get to an enterprise value you add net debt. This is what the counterparty actually purchases... the equity outstanding along with the net debt. ASZ had 46.6 net debt pre c/r so its enterprise value was c. $229m or c. 7.9x FY12 EBITDA ($29m)

    After the cap raising the firm issued 29m shares @ .52 cents for c. $15.4 less transaction costs to pay off debt. The effect of this is debt reduces by 14.6m (15.4 less costs) to $32m after the c/r. If ASZ has an advisor worth their salt, they will argue that the offer remains at 7.9x EBITDA enterprise value ($229m) post c/r and equity value increases to $197m (as debt has been reduced by 14.6m).

    The higher equity value is then divided by the new number of shares outstanding of 206m to give an equity value per share of 0.96...

    Hope that makes sense - the brokers can also play games with the earnings as the multiplier is usually based of forward earnings and these can/should be normalised for c/r or other one off costs... all fun and games.
 
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