Hi all, will be an interesting week coming up. The last 7 days trading has produced the first half decent rise since late April, leaving price sitting just below overhead resistance and perched precisely on the upper trend line of a descending channel that kicked off last October. So looking at important levels but also at the background of the chart, included below for anyone interested.
The last 3 down waves are shown on the chart have made less progress past the previous swing low each time, and the last wave was on increased volume, suggesting that demand was absorbing supply and slowing the down move. While this suggests the down trend was weakening, what we were missing was an increase in price and volume for the up waves in between. But now we have an increased volume up wave which was kicked off by a pretty hard bounce off the bottom off the channel- which is encouraging. It managed to break through the top of the channel, but as yet has not been strong enough to get through the resistance at about 55c.
No predictions, just running through a few options to help draw some lines in the sand for this week...Price may immediately turn up and have another crack at 55c which would be great, but may need another little "rest" before the next attempt, especially when trying to turn around 8 months worth of downtrend momentum with no news or catalyst. And Friday's indecision bar is potentially a "no demand" bar with the low volume narrow spread suggesting not quite enough demand interested in taking price through 55c just yet. Price didn't spend long below 50c before some strong demand appeared, so perhaps the 50-51c level will provide a springboard to break 55c with a bit more power. A drop below the 47.5c level will be a failure to make a higher low and obviously a sign of weakness.
The last 3 days were not particularly strong but the low volumes suggest there wasn't a lot of selling with intent either, so to me it seems a decent chance price will float about and perhaps get back to around 50-51. The market does as it pleases but if it were to bounce back up from this level then we would have a higher low and as a bonus would have formed a little inverse head and shoulders pattern and would probably have a bit more momentum for a stronger move up.
Just some thoughts- good luck everyone.
(20min delay)