This from Livewire was interesting. MNB sounds like it very much...

This from Livewire was interesting. MNB sounds like it very much fits into the second category.

‘There are two kinds of investment ideas. Those whose implications are straightforward and obvious, take relatively little special expertise to evaluate and consequently travel quickly (like hot stocks). And then there are those ideas that require reflection, judgment, special expertise, etc., for their evaluation, and consequently travel slowly.‘Pursuit of the second kind of idea — rather than the obvious, hence quickly discounted — is the only meaningful definition for long-term investing.’

‘There are two kinds of investment ideas. Those whose implications are straightforward and obvious, take relatively little special expertise to evaluate and consequently travel quickly (like hot stocks). And then there are those ideas that require reflection, judgment, special expertise, etc., for their evaluation, and consequently travel slowly.
‘Pursuit of the second kind of idea — rather than the obvious, hence quickly discounted — is the only meaningful definition for long-term investing.’

I found Treynor’s idea of categorising investment implications by the speed of uptake to be insightful.

Implications that travel quickly are discounted quickly — that is, priced in by the market with haste.

The quickest travelling ideas are often associated with hot stocks, popular press stocks, and ‘meme’ stocks.

A good example of this is lithium hopeful Lake Resources [ASX:LKE]. The stock was one of the best-performing stocks on the All Ordinaries [INDEXASX:XAO] in 2021.

But the thesis for LKE — that electric vehicles (EVs) are the future and lithium supply is constrained — was somewhat ‘straightforward and obvious, [took] relatively little expertise to evaluate, and consequently travel[led] quickly.’

Unsurprisingly, the investment idea behind LKE was ‘quickly discounted’.

Since hitting an all-time high in April 2022, LKE is down nearly 90%.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/what-s-not-priced-in-asx-correction-market-liquidity-rate-cycle-lessons