ta charts, page-3

Hi Bleasby, thanks for the great post. It was only by chance I stumbled on it. CD, Pelm and Humble are the reasons I have an interest so I tend to only post and read where they are.

Yep your run through of my chart is fairly good. Just a couple of things though. The 261.8 of the 2011 consolidation is one part of the 29 level however the main driver is the 176.4 of the April 08 low to the May 08 high. That area of the chart is the main driver and will continue to be until a workable base is in place.

If you run extensions (projections) from that 08 period of 123.6, 138.2, 161.8 and 176.4 you'll get a better idea of what I'm looking at .

On suspended data. There's an enormous connection between Fib time and financial behaviour. It's a little bit of a grey area however you can use internet forums as the ideal test case. Look at how people behave when trading is suspended for any period of time. Often it impacts on them more than normal conditions, which can be displayed in extreme volume characteristics which often occur when trading commences. We have done quite a bit of testing and there does appear to be more accuracy when static data is included however you're also right in that due to its general nature and frequency testing of data is difficult.

With regards to time ratios, you're spot on. I won't tell you your chart is rubbish as it isn't however on your model the probability of price running beyond the 50% fan line is reduced and should a break occur before that May period then the probability is significantly reduced.
In the event that it does exceed that level it will have an extremely high probability of revisiting it's initial step point (first fan entry). Had the rejection of the 2012 lows occurred in 2011 then your model would fit much better. An ideal time ratio is to run back two cycles. A decline of 144 as an example will base for a period greater than 55 bars before entering 38.2 which a May entry complies with however fails when we run into June. The other issue is the fifteenth cycle from the )* high (although I'd recommend using the low of the first corrective). If you include that period which is valid due to the 15 cent low in October then May becomes 15:11 which has a high fail rate.
Ultimately the longer it bases the better it will be.

Many thanks for the chat

ww1