I believe the business has always been a buy. I've bought well north of here and south of here. IMO there are plenty of companies that are over valued on the ASX (and have been for long periods) because of potential being built into the SP and everyone has a different value on what potential is worth, now if those companies stay over valued or even increase in SP then they too could even be rated as a buy but only if the company is kicking goals and the fundamentals are good/great. Why? Because of the market being so irrational, if one doesn't buy into it and waits for lows that may never come then you risk the chance of not being involved in a great company because you couldn't pick the lows (I've missed out several times), and with a totally irrational market that can push specky stocks any which way it wants then that's not a gamble I'm willing to take.
It's worked best for me to research a company in its infancy and buy in relatively low as long as it keeps showing promise/progress and to continue to buy as long as it keeps hitting milestones, in other words the irrational SP valuation has little to do with my buying (especially speckies) as long as the fundamentals are sound and keep progressing. I'm yet to see anyone provide a sound reason as to why the SP should be $1 on our current financials but that doesn't for a second mean the market may not decide to value our shares at $1 tomorrow because of a contract like the US $50 million from the defence being announced (as reported in the Petra report), if that happened will our actual current financial figures have changed? The answer is no but the SP sure would've.
I don't pretend to be an expert at always picking lows and selling at highs but I do have patience and enough smarts to see this will eventually be a very successful business if the fundamentals keep moving forward at the rate they have over the last two years, so in my opinion the SP got well in front of itself and has come back to reality (based on our current financials) but that doesn't mean that if one or a couple of the potential contracts the company said should've been here by now actually had come through then the SP could justifiably be higher if they were to present extra revenue. I'm the same as everyone else and am extremely annoyed the said contracts haven't come through when they said they would but anyone of those contracts from the $1.17 decline could have made the valuation realistic, my buy sentiment is to say this company is a buy as tomorrow you may not be able to buy in at this price, if anyone can tell me how the market will definitely act to different news good or bad over the next month I'm all ears.
I usually don't like these but here is one of Buffets quotes I do like.
"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."
I've always thought Alexium has great upside potential and have rated it a buy because of potential that could happen at any moment, but our current and previous financials have shown that they couldn't justify a higher SP, but build in just some of the announced potential and it could be worth way more than $1, the problem is that the company has missed their timelines by so much that the potential element of the SP valuation is continually decreasing as more shareholders show more scepticism as to whether they'll ever hit these announced licensing deals, military contracts, carpet sales, tenting deals, plastics for circuit boards and there electrics, car interiors, and the list is way longer than that, but pull off just a couple of these next week and the current SP is well north of $1 if it's guaranteed revenue.
So Alexium has been and still is a buy, I won't fight an irrational market to pick an entry point when there is heaps of potential that could pop any day.
Cheers.
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