After a 30% incease in 4 days the SP not unexpectedly is retracing from resistance encountered at 50 cents. Not enough energetic buying left for the moment and some profit taking no doubt, nothing unusual there. The 50 cent level is about midway between the 64 cent high in late June and the 37.5 cent low from Monday last week.
At what point the retrace will reach support is hard to pick, it is a matter of where the buyers get their second wind. At the moment it looks to be around 48 cents but somewhere around 46 cents is possible which would clear the gap and also aligns with a Fib 38.2% retrace. However there is history around 47 and 48 cents (Fib -23.6%) but the demand looks a bit skinny there unless there is a pickup today. I wouldn't take too much notice of yesterday's activity, Mondays are fickle anyway and the market was jittery.
With respect to the punters who are predicting a total reversal of the recent up leg or double bottom outcome - it doesn't seem likely but one can never be certain about anything in the markets, including the motives of some proponents of such a move. If one is going to take a punt like that seriously it could just as easily head north too, all it needs is a couple of buyers with deep pockets.
However the evidence suggests that the outcome going forward is a bit foggy until support is confirmed, possibly somewhere between 46 and a more desirable 48 cents. The 50% retrace level of the current up leg is around 44.5 cents...
Daily COB September 4th
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