1. As an explanation for why these brokers would cut their...

1. As an explanation for why these brokers would cut their targets right now, yours simply makes no sense. Declining birth/marriage rates were the case before A2M's update and they remain the case following their update. So what new information are brokers responding to? The only change related to outlook was a positive one, an increase in forecast revenue growth. I certainly would be interested to see how they justify it in their broker reports but I don't have access.

2. I think you probably just wanted to make the broader point about birth / marriage rates being a headwind for the company which is obviously true. But interestingly from what I can see, none of the AGM materials mentioned the new seniors milk powder product they recently announced at CIIE in China last month.

The point ought to be acknowledged that they are continuing to find ways to grow within a declining market, through a) growing market share; b) increasing the range of IF products targeting different market segments/price points; and eventually c) in-sourcing manufacturing to improve product margins. Then outside of the infant/child-focused market, they have scope to grow whole of family and senior nutrition. The fact that they surprised brokers with an upgrade last week suggests that they - like you - have not accurately assessed the potential of the company's strategy in response to the demographic headwinds.

3. Short positions are already at a relatively low level. So I think it is less about institutions needing to cover their positions. In my view some of these brokers are likely seeking to accumulate long positions and are slow-walking some of the changes to their guidance. You'll notice many of them are sat on 'Hold' and just playing around with price targets.