TAH most valuable part of the business is the lottery division, this is ROCK solid income without failed and can easily grow with inflation and population, so you looking a business with easily match inflation and more for many decades into the future. it can paid out 100% of its earning no worry due to this reliable cash flow.
Last half the lottery division grow double digit with is far far higher than inflation and population growth so from a conservative point of view just take grow with inflation (2-3%) as a base and compound that forward you get a pretty cheap business in this low rate environment
The valuation on lottery alone worth that much compared to risk free rate, you get wagering business for free.
The drag on this business is wagering division and they should look to spins it off and let it formulates its own strategy with either becomes a hunter or prey and let scale helps the margins and earning. Currently it probably bound because ACCC would blocked any more TAH merger play
Currently management has no appetite for a spins off but another year or two of this and big holder will forced their hand.
I got in at $4.30 last year and look to accumulate more when the market sell everything during sell off session and I am not too worry about the dividend
Don't focus too much on dividend focus on its business going forward and valuation.
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)