When the merger happened the combined MC was $8.6B; we're now around $11.5B (prior MC's were Tab $4.08B and Tatts $5.275B)
From looking at the financials you can see that all the growth has come from the lotteries side, and the wagering division revenue is way down. So is $3.5B a fair price, and if it is will that bid pass regulatory approvals? Throw in the pokies and is $4B a fair price? Is the Betmakers offer fair? (for full disclosure I am a BET shareholder, but personally don't think this will pass TAH shareholders vote therefor cannot see the board recommending this option). With BET you get Matt Tripp and US growth story, and BET gets the racing and media licences.
I've read lots of posts saying TAH should currently be at $5.50/$6 a share, so do people think that the lotteries is worth $9-10B stand alone or do they think the wagering is worth well over $3.5-4B?
My prediction is the board will say that they believe the wagering arm is worth more than the current offers on the table and decide to demerge the companies to create most value for shareholders, this will take 12 months to happen and once it does the wagering arm will be doing what it does now, losing money and market share operating as an outdated model. The lotteries arm will continue to be a great investment for the holders of those shares.
Does anyone have any thoughts or predictions they'd lie to share?
TAH Price at posting:
$5.26 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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