The likelihood of China invading Taiwan is low, especially in the short to medium term.
1. I think you will find that China think what Russia is doing quite embarrassing.
2. Invasion of Taiwan is not as simple as rolling tanks over a border - crossing the sea is not straightforward and will I daresay result in much naval loss for China.
3. The Chinese have a totally different mentality to the Russians - they are much more reticent and careful. Slower. They realise that to rise as a nation, that economic power is paramount and not military power. They will use economic power to envelop and re-integrate Taiwan if anything. Slowly.
China's leadership is not supportive of this instability. This is very awkward for China. USA is China's strategic rival & Russia is a useful partner for China in this as they share common interests. However, China do NOT want to get caught up in these current sanctions. Therefore one silver lining to this war is that I believe China are now even less likely to want to invade Taiwan.
In public China will remain neutral whilst taking snipes against the USA but behind closed doors they will be shaking their head at Putin. It's absolutely not in China's interests to have a massive war/nuclear holocaust in that part of the world. It is telling that Russia waited until the Winter Olympics were over to commence the invasion of Ukraine - that should give you a clue as to the power balance between Russia & China. If anything, China is more likely to invade Russia than the West!
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