Well said gecko5,
I have just spotted your post as I'm about to enjoy my hot cappuccino. I agree to all of what you have just summarised then.
And I have to add I hold SDL as loyal as to many of us in here.
The only thing that I have missed was that knowing who are the Engineering firms that are doing the DFS? Is there any Chinese Engineering firm involved? Are the Chinese involved in the inputs of the DFS Calcs and Model? Or maybe Koreans? Because my common sense dictates that OZ Companies would not be there to do the engineering work, most likely the Chinese would get the Tender and the dirty work. OZ companies would probably do the "M" only on the EPCM chain.
For Item 4 gecko5, that's an absolute legal commercial terms. There's nothing illegal in that sort of arrangements. It's the principle of the costs from the supplier point Vs the cost to distribute. McDonalds, Starbucks, Coles, Woolies, Dell, HPs, Macs... the big mining guys, juniors, small guys, other industries, etc..etc... The supplier or the costs of supply of the Big Mac you eat and buy at $7.45 or $8 is I think from memory??? costs 65 cents. And it is a known fact in the business world nowadays, that the cost of production is only about 15% to 30% of the selling price at the point of sale to the final consumer. 70% to 85% of that selling price goes to distribution and marketing and sales costs.
So there's no way that CamIron would sell that one ton of iron ore FOB Cameroon "port" at whatever current market price (whatever that would be at the time ...$150, $200 or even $300 - who knows??). And there is no way, the Chinese or the Koreans would go out there to risk their money on that blank of infrastructure land (and be the first to build major facilities and infras) - and end up paying the current market price at the future time. THEY WILL LOCK THAT PRICE MY FRIEND!!!
And if the Chinese would fund the bulk of it, and perhaps build the bulk of it as well, they will dictate those commercial terms. Of course SDL would try, but at the end, Who is going to BUY those dirt??? IF your answer is the same as mine, then, we can agree that whoever would be that funder, and buyer, would play a part in squeezing both of our Balls gecko5, and I tell you....it's going to be uncomfortable but that's the way it would come to pass - IF we want our baby SDL to come out of the womb and live.
And we have to admit, that Chinese for 5000 years, they are known to be the most solid race lineage known to human kind, and the BEST TRADERS of all time. Now, most of the consumables of the world they don't only Trade now, BUT they Produce as well. And that's why most of the $$$ of the world are flowing their way. Simple business model, BUT it is hard to emulate by our own western standards.
I am anxious of waiting NOT for the SP to rise or not, as most of us here do BUT on how they are going to get this project through. I would like to see their EPC or EPCM Model which would be indicated in their DFS.
Let us be real here, the "real issue here" is that, it's NOT the ability or capability of the SDL Management to build a $4-B to even $8-B Iron ore project. It is - who is going to fund them (which is becoming obvious now that Chinese stepped in for a 19% stake already ex Talbot's holdings) and who is going to build it for them and operate and actually make it happen for them (SDL).
And who is going to move that dirt from point A to B to C to D??? and who is going to buy it from these individual points, well - your answers would be the same as mine as well. If they do the Chinese way, that's how it would happen.
Now we all know that our OZ guys can build it for them (but for a higher cost obviously for a better quality maybe) - but at this stage we can not send anyone over there (maybe our top Project Managers and top Foremen only), as our OZ mining companies are screaming for engineers and skilled workers for their own projects here. It's crazy here in OZ at the moment, for example, we had just been too desperate lately that we had to import 2 East Germans to come and work for us as Professional Engineer and Scientist.
It is a good day, I suppose. I am going fishing, it's a sunny day and a good way to pass the time waiting. Technology still going to be there, whether in the mountains or at the banks of a lake or by the shorelines. News would still come my way in real time online.
Thanks gecko5.
Cheers.
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