I have seen a couple of comments lately referring to me. I have been quite on here because for me there is simply nothing much to say. It's business as usual until the next announcement or 4C.
I have been buying lately and have added again today under 30 cents. Admedus will be on a forward price to sales ratio of just under 2 next FY as it heads towards profitability. I won't go over all of the reasons why admedus is well placed over the next 18 months as I have done that many times previously.
Like many I was disappointed on the surface with the Vax results (and webinar presentation) but my investment case has little to do with Immunotherapies and the cream it could provide. I still think there is lots of value in our Immunotherapies and I trust Wayne will sort out its structure and funding in the best interests of shareholders (after all that's what we pay him to do). Many here on HC give the impression that they could do a better job than Wayne, a seasoned professional with many runs on the board (simply because they are in the red and demand a quick fix for their unrealised losses.) Give me a break, please.
The business will be split at some stage and yes the Vax needs its own structure. My personal view is that I don't want it to split just yet as we need to build some value in the company from our achieving results. Unlike many I don't want a quick get out of jail card in the form of an opportunistic takeover. In my view once we spilt I give us 12 to 18 months before we are gobbled up by the likes of a Medtronic, St Judes, Edwards, or CorMatrix and we will likely not see the 2020 vision and beyond play out. Think of the value of our Adapt platform with their resources and sales networks and customers. The value we have is real. So yes split the business but we need to be more stable and valued more in line with what we are worth before doing so.
So while the market laments uncertainty and a falling share price I have my eyes firmly on the next 4C, financial year results, TAVR news, CC 3D first implant and sales, update on China, India and Mexico, updates on European progress and ultimately achieving 20 million ebit in 2020. The day to day stuff I simply couldn't care less about.
I am as confident as ever in our company's progress but agree we must start to see an improvement in Adapt sales. I am hoping for 2.5 million to 3.5 million but will tolerate anything over 2 million as the team gets settled, marketing gets traction, the new National Account manager Jim Lemle builds relationships, and hospitals add our new products to their approved order lists.
All of this, like it or not, takes time. So anything over two million in Adapt sales will be ok for me and show that we are heading in the right direction. However, I am really hoping for close to 3 million which see us miss our CC target by only .5 million and with the mess the company was in when Wayne set this target I am happy with that we have achievement.
We will exceed our financial targets this FY (one would think we are issuing profit downgrades) and coming out of a major restructure we need to give credit where credit is due. The fact that the share price has fallen while the fundamentals have improved (and continue to improve) to me is nothing more than an opportunity. We will go very close to another cash flow positive quarter this quarter and may miss it by only one or two million. However, we will be in a strong position going into FY 18 and I expect us to be cash flow positive by 3rd quarter FY 18 if not earlier. That will be a great achievement from losing 24 million only last FY. It's easy to lose sight of what we have achieved in a short space of time.
So until we get more news the slide below tells me all I need to know about our progress to date and I am very happy and content, irrespective of the red it shows on my screen. I am not a trader, I am not a market timer and I don't care about charts. I search for value in companies and I am happy to hold and wait for that value to play out as I expect. I pay no attention to the moves in the share price up or down (although admittedly up is always nicer.)
Should things change and the fundamentals no longer stack up I will be the first to cut my losses and move on. However, I have seen nothing at all since Wayne took over to make me feel that way. So for now its accumulate on weak sentiment and continue to be patient, patient, patient.
DYOR and exciting times ahead. - Any chance of a new thread title as this one is a bit tired!
(20min delay)