Hi NZ - fancy seeing you here!
There's been quite some confusion and now negative sentiment towards the delivery of the trial which, IMO, presents an incredible buying opportunity.
Because the tech is classified as a device, rather than a pharmaceutical, it progresses along a different (shorter) trialling and apporval path. Not sure how much you know abou the tech so I won't go into great detail here (happy to chat offline) other than to say it's worked well in animals and, because it's not pharmaceutically 'active', it's very likely to work well in humans, too. Let me know if you want some more info.
The opportunity, I believe, is the dramatic overreaction by the market to delays with trial recruitment (aiming for about 15 HER2+ve breast cancer patients to participate). It was originally due to be fully enrolled by the end of the year, however, in the last quarterly it became clear that only one patient had been enrolled by EOFY (the comapny has cited COVID delyays, which is probably right). Just before EOFY, however, the CEO made public comments that the trial was 'on track' when it clearly wasn't, and this has contributed to the negative sentiment right now - understandable.
Since then, additional trial sites have come online, with a further site in NSW coming online 'imminently' (there's that word again!). We have had no further update on recruitment since the last retrospective quarterly. So noone really knows - it's all conjecture and freyed tempers.
Some are pretty p155ed with trial progress, having bought in at SP high water mark and seeing plenty of red, and there's the usual biotech ranting that accompanies price volatility - I'm not happy either, but try to take a longer term view. As you know, I've been in biotechs for longer than I care to remember and what I'm seeing, while frustrating, is all par for the course - seen it all before. Bottom line, the trial will be completed, albeit late, and when it is completed or there is a mid-trial update confimring the tech works... well, I wouldn't want to be standing on the sidelines!
The huge drop in SP you've observed is, IMO, attributable to nothing else. I expect there were some who loaded up expecting quick news regarding the trial and a short-term windfall, but this is one to hang onto to the very end - the addressable market is massive, patent protected, existing cooperation from Siemens, board and advicers with all the right contacts.
Hope this helps - let me know if you want more detail.
Cheers
Densy
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