Hard to know. A 4th downgrade is always a possibility, as is the uncertainty with Covid. That being said, the HY was $677m, this was achieved during peak covid when corporate daigou basically dried up and retail daigou was non existent. Also a time when so called pantry stocking meant that everyday consumers didn't need to buy the product because they had sufficient to see them thru the various lockdowns. If we simply double the HY, thats $1.34 billion, not far short of the $1.4b FY guidance. The company have told us that they are seeing green shoots and a slow recovery with corporate daigou (from the HY conference call), and MBS stores/sales/market share in China are increasing. Personal opinion, but I think unless we see China back in hard lockdown and a return to peak Covid, I think its basically a given that FY guidance will at least be met. I think the company has learnt not to over promise, as was seen with a slight beat on HY guidance.
A2M Price at posting:
$8.99 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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