You’d be hard pressed to see Tom, Senteniel owners, and a few...

You’d be hard pressed to see Tom, Senteniel owners, and a few others willing to give away the company for $600m as they still hold quite a bit of stock and sway

FY23 cost base circa $140 growing at 10% = $154m

even a mediocre a small -10% cut in the cost base resets this back to $138m

Interest on stored float was $29m in January but this would be tracking along between $45m-$50m

FY23 underlying EBIT at the mid point is $30m so add $15m to that + growth in Sentenial alone (let’s say $5m) and you get to $50m

any other growth on top of that in GPR and G&I is a bonus + if they go harder on cost cuts say -15% like the previous CEO mentioned in the long range strategy that you get closer to $60m EBIT

For now it’s uncertainty and the market hates that hence the price but one other item worry’s me.

Although Tom managed to renegotiate Correos deal in June 2022 for another 3 years, this client is circa 50% of PFS business (Spain). Maybe they’ll consider selling the PFS business to a Spanish Fintech and relocate the licence. (Book value is circa $140m). If this occurs we have a $170m turnover the likely a $70m EBIT business

will wait and see I guess