I don’t disagree with your original 60/40 against. It does pose an interesting question .
If the TO offer is not approved , then what price will ORG settle down at ?
So, based on your projection of 60/40 against and if we assume that in the event of the takeover failing the price settles back to $6.75 ( which is not unreasonable in my opinion given ORGs last outlook for next year and the high valuation established by Brookfield) . We have the following risk profile:
40% chance of an approx $2 gain less a 60% chance of a $0.25 cent loss. That is $0.80 less $0.15 cents , or a net positive of $0.65 .
Plug in your own numbers , but if I didn’t already hold a lot I would be enticed to buy more using this equation or something similar.
take over chance of succeeding?, page-48
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Last
$10.62 |
Change
-0.030(0.28%) |
Mkt cap ! $18.29B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $10.78 | $10.78 | $10.62 | $35.73M | 3.352M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | 8855 | $10.62 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $10.63 | 4290 | 1 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 11/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| ORG (ASX) Chart |