I don’t disagree with your original 60/40 against. It does pose...

I don’t disagree with your original 60/40 against. It does pose an interesting question .
If the TO offer is not approved , then what price will ORG settle down at ?
So, based on your projection of 60/40 against and if we assume that in the event of the takeover failing the price settles back to $6.75 ( which is not unreasonable in my opinion given ORGs last outlook for next year and the high valuation established by Brookfield) . We have the following risk profile:
40% chance of an approx $2 gain less a 60% chance of a $0.25 cent loss. That is $0.80 less $0.15 cents , or a net positive of $0.65 .
Plug in your own numbers , but if I didn’t already hold a lot I would be enticed to buy more using this equation or something similar.