* General market sentiment is extremely risk adverse at present...anything not in production with no cash-flow or anything to do with iron-ore is a no go area. GBG ticks all these boxes and so investors are avoiding it right now.
* GBG low share-price due to above is exacerbated by aggressive shorting of the stock
* Debt Funding - no 'concrete' update from GBG is undoubtably contributing to the negative sentiment, but I'd assume GBG can't say too much until any arrangements have been finalized - if they said anything too soon, I'd expect that in itself could impact whatever negotiations are underway.
* Project Schedule & Budget - the schedule and budget 'seems' to be on-track, although the market remains nervous (and the shorters must love this) however is the market assuming cash flows are already stretched when GBG may not need the cash yet? When the quarterly update comes out in a few weeks we should hopefully become better informed on this item at least.
From someone else's post in the last few days it appears there will be a positive update soon about activation of the power to the mine site - I'm looking forward to that. Hope it comes soon.
And assuming the first magnetite production remains on-track, as a long-term long-suffering holder, I'd expect to see the stock re-rate itself at least to some extent by Sept/October.
* Oakajee delays - seems like the Midwest will continue to suffer these for some time however any significance to GBG should not be too great - I think they have capacity at Geraldon Port of up to 16Mtpa, so they should be OK for Stage 1 during 2013 with the Stage 2 ramp-up to 16 Mtpa after that - so still at least 12 months away. And GBG probably has options that might present themselves. If Sinosteel is forced to reconsider its project, if other capacity at Geraldton Port becomes available e.g.,Mt Gibson(?) then Geraldton might have capacity becoming available for the likes of GBG. That's speculation I know, but if correct then any negative impact of Oakajee delays would not impact GBG for years - 2015 / 2016 at the earliest.
I'll continue to hold..and wish I had some play money I could afford to risk at these prices! Oh well.
DYOR.
GBG Price at posting:
37.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
