Hi Frist, I posted about what RMS might attempt as a first offer...
RMS first offer?
Though of course, everything I post is quite literally speculation.
The list you provided is quite thought provoking, as SPRs board has changed quite dramatically in recent months... .
All the more so when 2 of the directors represented major holders who have both sold large shareholdings recently (Tembo sold 4.75%, Delphi sold 9.1%).
For example as of the 14th of Feb, the board looked like this.... but as of today.... it's down to 4, with RMS soon to add one.
SL has been working incredibly hard to build up the team to actually develop NN, though 'some' posters seem to think he's just treading water.
I am so pleased that Deanna was brought in a few months ago (SL and D.C hopefully make a powerful team in representing shareholders interests).
David Coyne is also very handy, considering he just went through the SLR/RED T/O.
So... option 1 - Friendly bid.
RMS has done 7 corporate deals over recent years. Of them... the last 6 all saw the boards recommend RMSs final offer..... so logically, they will be aiming for a similar outcome with Spartan, so... I can only imagine there are discussions ongoing as we speak, which, I feel gives some justification for why SPR has not said anything publicly (plus, they are still doing everything they planned to do after the recent raising, plus... now having to be very savvy to deal with RMS and any other potential suitors) and, I do strongly view there being ZERO chance they are holding back any results, they will provide them when they can (this is not at you Firsttracks).
I think the board are all very experienced and realistic, so... the question is, does the board think there is a justifiable case for still going it alone versus RMS potential offer. In a nut shell, I think there is, especially when you look at BGLs valuation. However, of course, that has to be balanced out with the benefits of a merged entity (the benefits RMS bring).
There is also the option for SPR to potentially spin out Glenburgh with cash, which I think is logical, which would IMHO, be incredibly beneficial since... the market gives it zero value anyway. Though whether SL would want to be the MD is a different matter, as.... he would likely be in demand for more prestigious positions.
Option 2 - Scheme could happen (but comes with it's own risks).... slightly off topic, but... when I was pondering things, RMS is starting to pay large amounts of tax.... SPR has a very large amount of tax credits... which from memory, has not really been discussed recently in regards to SPRs overall value.
Option 3 - Hostile - not RMS style, but... then this potential deal, will be RMS biggest by a magnitude of 450%. We already know WGX warded RMS off, so did Karora. RMS is unlikely to be feeling particularly pleased with these outcomes.
Option 4 - Creep... again not RMS style, plus... it would simply take too long, especially when SPR could potentially be pouring ounces within 12 months.
@BerserkWarrior and
@RooBendigo provide some great commentary and examples on the other threads in regards to what has occurred in other corporate deals. 17.94% is a good holding size, but it guarantee's nothing.
SPR have options available to them, particularly... undertaking a further raising and forging towards production. They can also engage other entities to see if a better offer is available or, even undertake a deal of their own (for example buy Big Bell of WGX, not in any way saying this would happen, just an example).
As for a potential premium. As I mentioned, in my other post, I was pretty blunt. A 2:1 offer... would be no premium at all.
We know that Tembo have publicly stated they wanted at least $1 for their holdings. They sold 1/3 of their shares for $0.89. Hence, to get an average of at least $1.01 (higher than $1), the other 2/3 rds would need to receive approx. $1.08 for their 9.99%. That would only be a 15.5% premium to todays share price. I just cannot see SPR holders selling for that (script or cash). I also touched on RMS past premiums paid for their acquisitions, and the lowest of all of them was 30%.... with the highest being 91.5% (not saying RMS will go quite that high).
And... hostile or friendly... RMS would obviously much prefer friendly, but... RMS clearly wants SPR and will do what it needs to.
Just because I can.... who knows what other angles might be out there... SL could step up and replace MZ (he's been at RMS for a long time).
All IMHO.
(20min delay)