See the chart below which maps the SPR daily SP vs the average rolling 10 day or 2 weeks volume since early September 2023 (the volume can be very volatile so an average gives a better trend of what is happening). It excludes the big volumes from RMS purchases. Others can provide their own comments which may differ from mine and I may have erred with some of my comments.
Looking forward to any comments and discussion as I am sure I will learn something from the many good SPR posters.
There is a strong correlation between the increase in SP and volumes since March. Doesn't seem buying by another big buyer other than RMS is necessarily supported - note the increase in volumes started well before RMS came on the scene. It is interesting that the volumes were quite high from September 2023 to December 2023 (around 4m a day) and then after the MRE Dec 23 update they fell significantly to below 2m a day until beginning of March 2024 - I have not looked at the reason for the major decline in volumes during the 3 months to March unless it is due to lack of news. The Pepper discovery was announced on 16 April 2024 but volume really started to increase from early-March when the 1km NN assay was released (from about 2m a day to 4 m a day) and after Pepper was discovered volume did not change much and then gradually moved up and then spiked from 11 June (NN assays) to about 5.5m a day - while volatile excluding 2 days the volume did not change that much once RMS came on the scene (it actually seem to fall other than the 2 days where it was over 8m and 10m).
From September to November the SP was volatile being a bit below 40c to 45c+ and then spiked up from mid-December when the updated MRE was released - the volume was high being between 3.5m to over 4m per day from September until late December after which it declined down to less than 2m a day (ie about halved) but the SP stayed around 40c to 50c
The SP from January to end of February was volatile going down to 40c at end of January and then started to increase to about 50c by end of February even though volume was low. The SP spiked up to about 60c to 65c from very early March after the 1 km great assay result from NN which coincided with a big increase in volume (very obvious as it went from about 1.5m a day to over 4.5m a day).
After the spike in the SP in early March (and spike in volume) the SP was volatile between about 60c and 70C, with high volume (3.5 to 4.5m a day) until early May. It is interesting that the initial Pepper discovery on 16 April did not move the SP or volume significantly (in fact the SP was about 60c at end of March and ended at 60c mid-May (ie CR) and then increased to about low to mid 70c before the 2nd Pepper announcement on 21 May and stayed around that level until it spiked on 13 June after a NN assay announcement on 11 June when volume increased significantly (a Pepper announcement on 6 June did not move the SP or volume much). Volume rose from about 3m to about 5.5m a day from 11 June and has been around that level except for a spike on 2 days when RMS came on the scene when the SP spiked to over 90c.
I find it interesting that:
- great assays on Pepper did not seem to move the SP or volume which I find strange as it is likely to lead to a major increase in the MRE. Rather it is the NN great assays that seem to have a big impact on the SP and volume
- Volume was high leading up to RMS coming on the scene as was the increase in SP.
- other than a spike in the SPR SP, RMS coming on the scene has not had a major impact on volume except for 2 or so days ie volume was already high
- I also found it interesting that the announcement of the updated MRE in Dec 2023 did not have a significant impact on the SP other than a spike when it was released and after that smaller spike it retreated lower - it appears the market had already priced the MRE in the SP (will that happen again?).
The other significant aspect to note is the significant increase in the POG from early March pushed up the SPR SP like most producers and also probably pushed up volume - very difficult to assess the impact on SPR SP other than it probably had a highly significant impact.
Based on the above observations and assuming RMS will not buy any more shares or another player emerges, will we see a bit of an increase in the SP and volume when the MRE is announced then a slow reduction in the SP and volume until the reserve is announced? Will we see a significant spike in the SPR SP if the reserve is very good?
Will it be a good time to take profits off the table just after the updated MRE and the reserve are announced especially since there may not be much news until we start seeing assays from drilling in the UG drive which may not be until late October at the earliest? The POG may also have a significant impact if its goes for another run higher.
(20min delay)