"Either way, history tells us that the dumb shorters get it wrong so at some point there will be a short covering rally"
I think you'll find the opposite is true.
Fwiw ARI has short activity but less than the sector average, although there has been no decline below .1 for the past few days. Short money also has an ability to avoid getting, well caught short I guess, and given the net figures for ARI are lower this suggests the market has given a higher probability of a t/o to ARI than other stocks similar.
ARI Price at posting:
80.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held