AD himself said in the most recent BRR presentation opex is projected to be in the "low 100's", and by the time you add in development expenditure (eg overburden stripping), admin and everything else, the base figure will grow not shrink. In my mind that could mean approaching $150/t worst case and of course I will be delighted to be proven wrong.
Transport costs to Darwin are the major expense, plus port costs, then you have the on-site mining costs: stripping, mining, beneficiating, loading. Don't forget Aruwurra is further from the highway than the Main Zone with consequent longer haul road and opex that would decrease savings in strip ratio compared to the Main Zone to some extent. In due course we will be told what these numbers are but as transport is the major cost most of the opex is baked in the cake it would seem. I know someone did some good number-crunching on transport costs some months ago but impossible to find that thread among all the thousands!!!! Perhaps someone can re-post that info?
The Mt Isa Tennant Creek railway would be the saving grace mid-term and an insurance policy against potential future softening RP prices. It would be in MAK's interests to help fund this to accelerate it with appropriate payback once in operation.
Short-term the key is to get going ASAP with road transport to generate enough surplus cash to then be able to look at all transport options with money in the kitty to fund them. Slurry line or rail seem to be the only two lower opex cost options.
AEV Price at posting:
87.6¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
