First the Lone Star bid has to be torpedoed, as that opens up...

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edshann

2,307 Posts.

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01/06/18

16:11

Post #: 33438748
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Originally posted by MixedBag ↑

Well it doesn't help out SOE(CNOOC) because SGE still have 100% of the project atm and if CNOOC backs into LXG fully then SGE still have 75% of the project and CNOOC 25%. If CNEML is taken over by CNOOC, then it gets interesting because SEH only control 49% of SGE (although apparently SEH has 50% voting power) and then SEH would have 40% and CNOOC 60%. (NB 5% option is included in these figures)

Either way, SEH maintains their holding and the worst that CNOOC can do is delay the project, withhold payments or amend the supposedly previously agreed to ODP contract. None of these would be good outcomes for CNOOC or China as they need gas. SEH has funds at the moment and can stop the development and production if they wish to.

NB There's also some value in SJB as well.

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First the Lone Star bid has to be torpedoed, as that opens up the prospect of a similar or even lower bid from the SOE. How long could we stand it if progress keeps getting delayed? The SOE can then make a low ball offer for SEH and end up with the lot. I am not saying it will happen, only that it is a risk and may explain why some are happy to take a price below the bid. Note either of the SOE could go down this path. A few months delay is not likely to worry them if they end up with a 100% of a very profitable project.

I just hope we get early news both SOE have agreed terms for ODP.

SEH Price at posting: 24.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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