takeover chat? what would you accept?, page-7

2055 PJ of 3P + conventional.

Even at 10c/3P without taking into account the conventional you are looking at 45c per share. The lowest 3P metric in recent memory was BOW at 16c/3P.

Remember that a scheme of arrangement must be approved by the board and the suitors vote is excluded. Without ERM the board was voted down 3:1 at the AGM. Without a good value bid a scheme of arrangement should not succeed. In a hostile takeover situation metrics can get thrown out the window.

Ultimately I see this as a 900+ MC company ($2/share). However, this would need a stable regulatory environment and management to act smartly to capatilise on this. This may be too much to ask. Obviously we are trading at a mere fraction of this price and to expect a takeover form these levels at that level would be foolish. However, it is a relatively tightly held company with a long tail - the top 20 will hold a lot of sway; and you can bet your bottom dollar that they will want (and need) a lot more than 20c a share.

Remember, we have the largest uncontracted reserves on the east coast. It really is a game of Russian roulette - if Rosella is a winner then we are away; if not then the sharks will get a relatively free feed. Let's just hope the bullet is in the correct chamber.

If this doesn't go to at least 50c in any takeover action I would be deeply, deeply disappointed.