I think you're right - and the 1 to 5% effectively ends up being the market share you think you can carve out
lets say with the 4DS tech you can carve out an extra 5% of that $115bn market. That is entirely new revenue attributable to the 4DS tech.
So at 20% profit for that new market and a 5:1 P:E you end up with US$5bn +
then exchange rate and shares on issue converts that to $4.8 a share.
you'd pay more if the revenue model was proven (i.e. a higher P:E) and if the profit margin was higher...
so at this stage (no revenue in place) it really depends on the market share you carve out (or think you will) and the P:E you'd be willing to pay.
the yellow highlights in the table above are showing how you could approach from a risk perspective - if you assume a larger market share you would probably drop the P:E (and vice versa)
